Gold, fiat money and price stability
The classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But short-run price variability led critics of the gold standard to propose reforms that look much like modern versions of price-path targeting. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine price dynamics under alternative policy regimes. In the model, an inflation target provides more short-run price stability than does the gold standard and, although it introduces a unit root into the price level, it leads to as much long-term price stability as does the gold standard for ...
Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies
Empirical work in macroeconomics is plagued by small sample size and large idiosyncratic variation. This problem is especially severe in the case of transition economies. We use a mixed estimation method incorporating information from OECD country data to estimate the parameters of a reduced-form transition economy model. An exactly identified structural VAR model is then constructed to analyze monetary policy. The OECD information increases the precision of the impulse response functions in the transition economies. The method provides a systematic way to use extraneous information to ...
FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?
Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. The Fed reports both the range (high and low) of the individual policymaker?s forecasts and a truncated central tendency. The central tendency range omits outliers from both the top and the bottom of the full range. The author finds, generally, that the forecasts derived from the full range are at least as good as those derived from the central ...
Monetary policy and real interest rates: new evidence from the money stock announcements
This paper presents new evidence on how asset prices respond to new information about the money stock. It shows that the information content of money stock announcements and the response of asset prices to new information in the announcements vary with changes in the monetary policy regime, the Federal Reserve operating procedures, and the reserve accounting rules. While previous studies have examined how asset prices respond to the money stock announcements under the interest-rate targeting procedure and the nonborrowed reserve procedure, we have included new evidence from the borrowed ...
What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?
This paper extends the analysis of price-level targeting to a model including the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. We examine the inflation-output variability tradeoffs implied by optimal inflation and price-level rules. In previous work with the Neoclassical Phillips Curve, we found that the choice between inflation targeting and price-level targeting depended on the amount of persistence in the output gap. That is, if the output gap was not too persistent, or if lagged output did not enter the aggregate supply function, then inflation targets were preferred to price-level targets. When we ...
What is potential GDP and why does it matter?
One look at recent Congressional Budget Office data shows how much estimates of the output gap can change as time passes.
A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error
Is there a common model inherent in macroeconomic data? Macroeconomic theory suggests that market economies of various nations should share many similar dynamic patterns; as a result, individual-country empirical models, for a wide variety of countries often include the same variables. Yet, empirical studies often find important roles for idiosyncratic shocks in the differing macroeconomic performance of countries. We use forecasting criteria to examine the macro-dynamic behavior of 15 OECD countries in terms of a small set of familiar, widely?used core economic variables, omitting ...
A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags
An analysis of how the money supply process can affect the cross-covariance structure of inflation and monetary growth, showing that the Federal Reserve's change in emphasis to monetary targeting in late 1979 could have made the apparently long lag from money growth to inflation virtually disappear in the 1980s.
Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed?s objectives, their forecasts, and recent deviations of the economy from the forecasts should be sufficient to understand how the Fed is making monetary policy. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers? views as closely as do the Board staff ...