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Author:Gavin, William T. 

Journal Article
PPI versus CPI inflation

National Economic Trends , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Consumer price inflation and housing prices

National Economic Trends , Issue Apr

Journal Article
The mechanics behind manufacturing job losses

Manufacturing jobs as a percentage of private employment has fallen by half?from about 21 percent in 1987 to less than 11 percent today. Yet, manufacturing output as a percentage of private output is cyclical with a fairly flat trend averaging about 14 percent.
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
Federal reserve credibility and the market's response to the weekly M1 announcements

A presentation of new evidence on the issue of Federal Reserve System credibility, examining the response pattern of asset prices to the weekly M1 announcements under different operating procedures and monetary policy regimes.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 8502

Working Paper
Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules

Decision makers, both public and private, use forecasts of economic growth and inflation to make plans and implement policies. In many situations, reasonably good forecasts can be made with simple rules of thumb that are extrapolations of a single data series. In principle, information about other economic indicators should be useful in forecasting a particular series like inflation or output. Including too many variables makes a model unwieldy and not including enough can increase forecast error. A key problem is deciding which other series to include. Recently, studies have shown that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2006-054

Journal Article
Low interest rates have yet to spur job growth

The Regional Economist , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Velocity and monetary targets

A discussion of Federal Reserve monetary targets and of their relationship to the turnover of money (velocity) in the economy, with an examination of historical trends from 1880 to 1982, and comment on the effect of interest-bearing checking accounts on velocity.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Economic forecasts: public and private

Monetary Trends , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Productivity and technology

National Economic Trends , Issue May



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