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Author:Gavin, William T. 

Journal Article
Payroll jobs and GDP

National Economic Trends , Issue May

Journal Article
FOMC consensus forecasts

In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a change in the way it communicates its view of the economic outlook: It increased the frequency of its forecasts from two to four times per year, and it increased the length of the forecasting horizon from two to three years. The FOMC does not release the individual members' forecasts or standard measures of consensus such as the mean or median. Rather, it continues to release the forecast information as a range of forecasts, both the full range between the high and the low and a central tendency that omits the extreme ...
Review , Volume 90 , Issue May , Pages 149-164

Working Paper
Forecasting the money supply in time series models

A demonstration of time series techniques used to forecast quarterly money supply levels. The results indicate that a bivariate model, including an interest rate and M1 predicts M1 better than the univariate model using M1 only, and as well as a 5-variable model which adds prices, output, and credit.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 8304

Working Paper
Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks

This paper develops a monetary model with taxes to account for the apparently asymmetric and time-varying effects of energy shocks on output and hours worked in post-World War II U.S. data. In our model, the real effects of an energy shock are amplified when the monetary authority responds to that shock by changing its inflation objective. Specifically, higher inflation raises households? nominal capital gains taxes since those taxes are not indexed to inflation. The increase in taxes behaves as a negative wealth effect and generates an immediate decline in output, investment, and hours ...
Working Papers , Paper 1304

Working Paper
Gold, fiat money and price stability

The classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But short-run price variability led critics of the gold standard to propose reforms that look much like modern versions of price-path targeting. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine price dynamics under alternative policy regimes. In the model, an inflation target provides more short-run price stability than does the gold standard and, although it introduces a unit root into the price level, it leads to as much long-term price stability as does the gold standard for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-014

Working Paper
The stimulative effect of forward guidance

This paper examines the stimulative effect of central bank forward guidance?the promise to keep future policy rates lower than its policy rule suggests?when the short-term nominal interest rate is stuck at its zero lower bound (ZLB).We utilize a standard New Keynesian model in which forward guidance enters our model as news shocks to the monetary policy rule. Three key findings emerge: (1) Forward guidance is more stimulative at the ZLB when households believe the economic recovery will be strong. When households expect a weak recovery or initially have low confidence in the economy, forward ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-38

Journal Article
Monetary policy stance: the view from consumption spending

We should expect a third business cycle in succession in which the real federal funds rate reaches its trough well after the economy begins to recover.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Are low interest rates good for consumers?

Although banks' cost of funds has dropped dramatically with the federal funds rate target, households' cost of funds has remained high, especially if we look at their cost of borrowing relative to their rate of return on saving.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Available labor supply

National Economic Trends , Issue Feb

Journal Article
PPI versus CPI inflation

National Economic Trends , Issue Feb

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