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Author:Gascon, Charles S. 

Journal Article
Fueling expected inflation

Monetary Trends , Issue Sep

Working Paper
Metro Business Cycles

We construct monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) beginning in 1990. Each index is derived from a dynamic factor model based on twelve underlying variables capturing various aspects of metro area economic activity. To accommodate mixed-frequency data and differences in data-publication lags, we estimate the dynamic factor model using a maximum- likelihood approach that allows for arbitrary patterns of missing data. Our indices highlight important similarities and differences in business cycles across MSAs. While a number of MSAs ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-46

COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts

With schools closed due to COVID-19, many full-time workers may drop out of the labor force to take care of their children. Which groups of workers might be most affected?
On the Economy

Social Distancing, but Mostly during the Workweek?

Analyzing a new index from the Dallas Fed shows that a key component of social distancing—staying at home—seems to be happening nationally during the week but not as much on the weekends.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Metro Profile: A Tale of Four Cities: Widespread Growth in Northwest Arkansas

Home to Walmart and several other large companies, this region has experienced unusually strong growth in population and income over the past half-century. Although the area was not immune to the Great Recession, Northwest Arkansas could be on the verge of another spurt, given that its economy often follows that of the U.S. business cycle, now in an upswing.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Predicting consumption: a lesson in real-time data

National Economic Trends , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Living Standards in St. Louis and the Eighth Federal Reserve District: Let’s Get Real

Recently, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has developed the Regional Price Parities (RPPs), spatial price indexes that allow for comparison of cost of living differences across various geographic areas. By construction, RPPs compare the average price level for a region with the national average. Accordingly, unlike traditional, temporal price indexes, RPPs can be used to adjust nominal incomes for cost of living differences, thereby allowing for more accurate comparison of living standards across geographic areas. When adjusting incomes in this manner, the authors find that, despite ...
Review , Volume 99 , Issue 4 , Pages 377-394

Journal Article
Health Care, Hospitality and Retirees Keep Hot Springs Afloat

Although this small MSA has strong health care and tourism sectors, it also has its share of challenges: income inequality, no airport and Americans? changing vacation patterns.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Journal Article
The commercial paper market, the Fed, and the 2007-2009 financial crisis

Since its inception in the early nineteenth century, the U.S. commercial paper market has grown to become a key source of short-term funding for major businesses, with issuance averaging over $100 billion per day. In the fall of 2008, the commercial paper market achieved national prominence when increasing market stress caused some to fear that, given its size and importance, the market's failure would sharply worsen the recession. The Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve enacted programs targeted at providing credit and liquidity to restore investor confidence. The authors review ...
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Nov , Pages 589-612

Journal Article
Metro profile: Louisville successfully transitions from industrial to service economy

Louisville is the focus in the first installment of this new data-driven feature in The Regional Economist. Unlike many other older cities, Louisville has smoothly transitioned from the industrial economy to the service economy, thanks in no small part to its strong health-care and food-service industries.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

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