Search Results
Journal Article
Economic effects of the unemployment insurance benefit
The U.S. labor market has remained weak in recent years, even though the overall economy itself has started to grow again after the deep recession. In response to the weak labor market conditions, the U.S. government has greatly expanded the entitlement period of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. In ?Economic Effects of the Unemployment Insurance Benefit,? Shigeru Fujita reviews some of the academic literature on the economic effects of UI benefits. On the one hand, UI can improve people?s well being because it helps them avoid a large drop in consumption in the face of job losses when ...
Working Paper
Procyclicality of capital requirements in a general equilibrium model of liquidity dependence
This paper quantifies the procyclical effects of bank capital requirements in a general equilibrium model where financing of capital goods production is subject to an agency problem. At the center of this problem is the interaction between entrepreneurs? moral hazard and liquidity provision by banks as analyzed by Holmstrom and Tirole (1998). We impose capital requirements under the assumption that raising funds through bank equity is more costly than through deposits. We consider the time-varying capital requirement (as in Basel II) as well as the constant requirement (as in Basel I). ...
Working Paper
Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?
This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our univariate forecasting models. We also find, however, that conditioning on the state of the economy sometimes does improve the performance of the Phillips curve model in a statistically significant manner. When we do find improvement, it is asymmetric -- Phillips curve forecasts tend to be more accurate ...
Working Paper
Declining labor turnover and turbulence
Superseded by Working Paper 15-29 The purpose of this paper is to identify possible sources of the secular decline in the aggregate job separation rate over the last three decades. The author first shows that aging of the labor force alone cannot account for the entire decline. To explore other sources, he uses a simple labor matching model with two types of workers, experienced and inexperienced, where the former type faces a risk of skill obsolescence during unemployment. When the skill depreciation occurs, the worker is required to restart his career and thus suffers a drop in earnings. ...
Working Paper
Recall and Unemployment
We document in the Survey of Income and Program Participation covering 1990- 2013 that a surprisingly large share of workers return to their previous employer after a jobless spell and experience very different unemployment and employment outcomes than job switchers. The probability of recall is much less procyclical and volatile than the probability of finding a new employer. We add to a quantitative, and otherwise canonical, search-and-matching model of the labor market a recall option, which can be activated freely following aggregate and job-specific productivity shocks. Recall and search ...
Working Paper
Aging and the Real Interest Rate in Japan: A Labor Market Channel
This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and declining trends in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search/matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force accounts for 40 percent or more of ...
Working Paper
Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?
The Phillips curve has long been used as a foundation for forecasting inflation. Yet numerous studies indicate that over the past 20 years or so, inflation forecasts based on the Phillips curve generally do not predict inflation any better than a univariate forecasting model. In this paper, the authors take a deeper look at the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and a conditional view. Namely, they use the test results developed by Giacomini and White (2006) to examine the forecasting ability of Phillips curve models. The authors' main results indicate that ...
Working Paper
Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach
This paper establishes robust dynamic features of the worker reallocation process in the U.S. labor market. The author uses structural VARs with sign restrictions, which take the form of restricting the short-run negative relationship between vacancies and unemployment (i.e., Beveridge curve). Despite the "weakness" of these restrictions, they reveal a clear, unambiguous pattern that when unemployment increases and vacancies drop, (i) both the separation rate and gross separations rise quickly and remain persistently high, (ii) the job finding rate and vacancies drop in a hump-shaped ...
Journal Article
Labor Market Recovery During the COVID-19 Pandemic
After most recessions, the labor market recovers slowly. Was the COVID-19 recession different?
Working Paper
Private risk premium and aggregate uncertainty in the model of uninsurable investment risk
This paper studies cyclical properties of the private risk premium in a model where a continuum of heterogeneous entrepreneurs are subject to aggregate as well as idiosyncratic risks, both of which are assumed to be highly persistent. The calibrated model matches highly skewed wealth and income distributions of entrepreneurs found in the Survey of Consumer Finances. The authors provide an accurate numerical solution to the model even though the model is shown to exhibit serious nonlinearities that are absent in incomplete market models with idiosyncratic labor income risk. The model is able ...