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Author:Foerster, Andrew T. 

Journal Article
Are we working too hard or should we be working harder? A simple model of career concerns

Economic Quarterly , Volume 92 , Issue Win , Pages 79-91

Journal Article
Federal Reserve : After Greenspan : choosing the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Econ Focus , Volume 9 , Issue Fall , Pages 2-4

Journal Article
Legislative update : Dividend tax cuts

Econ Focus , Volume 7 , Issue Fall , Pages 5

Working Paper
Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models

Markov-switching DSGE (MSDSGE) modeling has become a growing body of literature on economic and policy issues related to structural shifts. This paper develops a general perturbation methodology for constructing high-order approximations to the solutions of MSDSGE models. Our new method, called "the partition perturbation method," partitions the Markov-switching parameter space to keep a maximum number of time-varying parameters from perturbation. For this method to work in practice, we show how to reduce the potentially intractable problem of solving MSDSGE models to the manageable problem ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-16

Journal Article
The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on employment.

Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Optimal monetary policy regime switches

Given regime switches in the economy?s growth rate, optimal monetary policy rules may respond by switching policy parameters. These optimized parameters differ across regimes and from the optimal choice under fixed regimes, particularly in the inflation target and interest rate inertia. Optimal switching rules produce welfare gains relative to constant rules, with switches in the implicit real interest rate used for policy and the degree of interest rate inertia producing the largest gains. However, gains from switching rules decrease if the monetary authority trades-off the probability of ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-7

Working Paper
Uncertainty and fiscal cliffs

Motivated by the US Fiscal Cliff in 2012, this paper considers the short- and longer- term impact of uncertainty generated by fiscal policy. Empirical evidence shows increases in economic policy uncertainty lower investment and employment. Investment that is longer-lived and subject to a longer planning horizon responds to policy uncertainty with a lag, while capital that depreciates more quickly and can be installed with few costs falls immediately. A DSGE model incorporating uncertainty over future tax regimes produces responses to fiscal uncertainty that match key features of the data. The ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-4

Journal Article
First flight centennial

Econ Focus , Volume 7 , Issue Fall , Pages 31-

Journal Article
The asymmetric effects of uncertainty.

Recovery from the recent financial crisis has been sluggish by historical standards, and employment growth has been similarly disappointing. Three periods of heightened economic uncertainty?the European sovereign debt crisis, the U.S. debt ceiling crisis, and, to a lesser extent, 2013's brief "taper tantrum"?may have contributed to this lackluster response. Foerster introduces a statistical model to analyze spikes in stock market volatility during these periods and thus quantify uncertainty's influence. He finds that uncertainty has asymmetric effects, with large increases in uncertainty ...
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 5-26

Working Paper
Estimating VAR's sampled at mixed or irregular spaced frequencies : a Bayesian approach

Economic data are collected at various frequencies but econometric estimation typically uses the coarsest frequency. This paper develops a Gibbs sampler for estimating VAR models with mixed and irregularly sampled data. The approach allows efficient likelihood inference even with irregular and mixed frequency data. The Gibbs sampler uses simple conjugate posteriors even in high dimensional parameter spaces, avoiding a non-Gaussian likelihood surface even when the Kalman filter applies. Two applications illustrate the methodology and demonstrate efficiency gains from the mixed frequency ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 11-11

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