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Author:Fleming, Michael J. 

Journal Article
Explaining settlement fails

The Federal Reserve now makes available current and historical data on trades in U.S. Treasury and other securities that fail to settle as scheduled. An analysis of the data reveals substantial variation in the frequency of fails over the 1990-2004 period. It also suggests that surges in fails sometimes result from operational disruptions, but often reflect market participants' insufficient incentive to avoid failing.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 11 , Issue Sep

Discussion Paper
What if? A Counterfactual SOMA Portfolio

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has actively used changes in the size and composition of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio to implement monetary policy in recent years. These actions have been intended to promote the Committee?s mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability but, as discussed in a prior post, have also generated high levels of portfolio income, contributing in turn to elevated remittances to the U.S. Treasury. In the future, as the accommodative stance of monetary policy is eventually normalized, net portfolio income is likely to decline from ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130814b

Discussion Paper
How Does the Liquidity of New Treasury Securities Evolve?

In a recent Liberty Street Economics post, we showed that the newly reintroduced 20-year bond trades less than other on-the-run Treasury securities and has similar liquidity to that of the more interest‑rate‑sensitive 30-year bond. Is it common for newly introduced securities to trade less and with higher transaction costs, and how does security trading behavior change over time? In this post, we look back at how liquidity evolved for earlier reintroductions of Treasury securities so as to gain insight into how liquidity might evolve for the new 20-year bond.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200826

Tick Size, Competition for Liquidity Provision, and Price Discovery: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

This paper studies how a tick size change affects market quality, price discovery, and the competition for liquidity provision by dealers and high-frequency trading firms (HFTs) in the U.S. Treasury market. Employing difference-in-differences regressions around the November 19, 2018 tick size reduction in the two-year Treasury note and a similar change for the two-year futures eight weeks later, we find significantly improved market quality. Moreover, dealers become more competitive in liquidity provision and price improvement, consistent with the hypothesis that HFTs find liquidity provision ...
Staff Reports , Paper 886

Discussion Paper
How Does Tick Size Affect Treasury Market Quality?

The popularity of U.S. Treasury securities as a means of pricing other securities, managing interest rate risk, and storing value is, in part, due to the efficiency and liquidity of the U.S. Treasury market. Any structural changes that might affect these attributes of the market are therefore of interest to market participants and policymakers alike. In this post, we consider how a 2018 change in the minimum price increment, or tick size, for the 2-year U.S. Treasury note affected market quality, following our recently updated New York Fed staff report.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200115

Journal Article
Trading activity and price transparency in the inflation swap market

The issues of liquidity and price transparency in derivatives markets have taken on greater import given regulatory efforts under way to improve their transparency. To date, the lack of transaction data has impeded the understanding of how the inflation swap and other derivatives markets operate. This article broadens that understanding by using a novel transaction data set to examine trading activity and price transparency in the quickly growing U.S. inflation swap market. The authors find that the market appears reasonably liquid and transparent, despite its over-the-counter nature and ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 19 , Issue May , Pages 45-57

Discussion Paper
Failure Is No Longer a (Free) Option for Agency Debt and Mortgage-Backed Securities

A recommended charge on settlement fails for agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) took effect on February 1, 2012. This follows the successful introduction of a charge on settlement fails for U.S. Treasury securities in 2009. With a fails charge, a seller of securities that doesn’t deliver on time must pay a charge to the buyer. The practice is meant to ensure that sellers have adequate incentive to deliver securities without undue delay and thereby reduce the level of settlement fails. In this post, I discuss how and why the fails charge was implemented.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120319

Discussion Paper
Is Treasury Market Liquidity Becoming More Concentrated

In an earlier post, we showed that Treasury market liquidity appears reasonably good by historical standards. That analysis focused on the most liquid benchmark securities, largely because data availability is best for those securities. However, some studies, such as this one and this one, report that market liquidity is concentrating in the most liquid securities at the expense of the less liquid, so that looking only at the benchmark securities gives a misleading impression. In this post, I look at trading volume information reported by the Federal Reserve to test whether liquidity is ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160211

Preserving firm value through exit: the case of voluntary liquidations

Voluntary liquidations offer an interesting example of efficient and orderly asset reallocation. This study examines why firms liquidate, and what happens to their assets. One important determinant of voluntary liquidation concerns asset performance and marketability: liquidating firms have low asset productivity, low market-to-book ratios, and high liquidity. Another important determinant concerns management having the proper incentives to liquidate: high inside ownership, takeover pressure, and low debt levels. Financial factors thus establish whether a liquidation is profitable, while ...
Staff Reports , Paper 8

The Microstructure of China's Government Bond Market

Although China now has one of the largest government bond markets in the world, the market has received relatively little attention and analysis. We describe the history and structure of the market and assess its functioning. We find that trading in individual bonds was historically sparse but has increased markedly in recent years. We find also that certain announcements of macroeconomic news, such as China?s producer price index (PPI) and manufacturing purchasing managers? index (PMI), have significant effects on yields, even when such yields are measured at a daily level. Despite the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 622


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