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Discussion Paper
What Explains the June Spike in Treasury Settlement Fails?
McMorrow, Michael; Keane, Frank M.; Fleming, Michael J.; Martin, Antoine (2014-09-19)
In June of this year?as we noted in the preceding post?settlement fails in U.S. Treasury securities spiked to their highest level since the implementation of the fails charge in May 2009. Our first post reviewed what fails are, why they arise, and how they can be measured. In this post, we dig into the fails data to identify possible explanations for the high level of fails in June. We observe that sequential fails of several benchmark securities accounted for the lion?s share of fails in June, but that fails in seasoned securities?which have been trending upward for some time?were also ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140919a

Report
What moves the bond market?
Remolona, Eli M.; Fleming, Michael J. (1997)
We take a close look at a year in the U.S. Treasury market and try to explain the sharpest price changes and most active trading episodes. The virtue of our analysis lies in its use of high-frequency data on market movements and accurate release times for a comprehensive set of economic announcements. For the period August 1993 to August 1994, we attribute the 25 largest price moves and 25 greatest trading surges to just-released announcements. The bond market's response to announcements in general is consistent with the way we would expect it to react to new information.
Research Paper , Paper 9706

Report
The microstructure of a U.S. Treasury ECN: the BrokerTec platform
Nguyen, Giang; Mizrach, Bruce; Fleming, Michael J. (2009-07-01)
We assess the microstructure of the U.S. Treasury securities market following its migration to electronic trading. We model price discovery using a vector autoregression model of price and order flow. We show that both trades and limit orders affect price dynamics, suggesting that traders also choose limit orders to exploit their information. Moreover, while limit orders have smaller price impact, their greater variation contributes more to the variance of price updates. Lastly, we find increased price impact of trades and especially limit orders following major announcements (such as FOMC ...
Staff Reports , Paper 381

Discussion Paper
Do You Know How Your Treasury Trades Are Cleared and Settled?
Mithal, Radhika; Keane, Frank M.; Fleming, Michael J.; Copeland, Adam (2018-09-12)
The Treasury Market Practices Group (TMPG) recently released a consultative white paper on clearing and settlement processes for secondary market trades of U.S. Treasury securities. The paper describes in detail the many ways Treasury trades are cleared and settled? information that may not be readily available to all market participants?and identifies potential risk and resiliency issues. The work is designed to facilitate discussion as to whether current practices have room for improvement. In this post, we summarize the current state of clearing and settlement for secondary market Treasury ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180912

Discussion Paper
Treasury Market When-Issued Trading Activity
Van Tassel, Peter; Shachar, Or; Fleming, Michael J. (2020-11-30)
When the U.S. Treasury sells a new security, the security is announced to the public, auctioned a number of days later, and then issued sometime after that. When-issued (WI) trading refers to trading of the new security after the announcement but before issuance. Such trading promotes price discovery, which may reduce uncertainty at auction, potentially lowering government borrowing costs. Despite the importance of WI trading, and the advent of Treasury trading volume statistics from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), little is known publicly about the level of WI activity. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201130

Report
Anomalous bidding in short-term Treasury bill auctions
Garbade, Kenneth D.; Keane, Frank M.; Fleming, Michael J. (2004-05-01)
We show that Treasury bill auction procedures create classes of price-equivalent discount rates for bills with fewer than seventy-two days to maturity. We argue that it is inefficient for market participants to bid at a discount rate that is not the minimum rate in its class. The inefficiency of bidding at a rate other than the minimum is related to a quantity shortfall rather than an unexploited profit opportunity. Auction results for weekly offerings of four-week bills and occasional offerings of cash management bills show that market participants frequently bid at inefficient rates. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 184

Discussion Paper
Corporate Bond Market Liquidity Redux: More Price-Based Evidence
Vogt, Erik; Fleming, Michael J.; Wojtowicz, Zachary; Adrian, Tobias (2016-02-09)
In a recent post, we presented some preliminary evidence suggesting that corporate bond market liquidity is ample. That evidence relied on bid-ask spread and price impact measures. The findings generated significant discussion, with some market participants wondering about the magnitudes of our estimates, their robustness, and whether such measures adequately capture recent changes in liquidity. In this post, we revisit these measures to more thoroughly document how they have varied over time and the importance of particular estimation approaches, trade size, trade frequency, and the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160209

Report
How do treasury dealers manage their positions?
Fleming, Michael J.; Rosenberg, Joshua V. (2007)
Using data on U.S. Treasury dealer positions from 1990 to 2006, we find evidence of a significant role for dealers in the intertemporal intermediation of new Treasury security supply. Dealers regularly take into inventory a large share of Treasury issuance so that dealer positions increase during auction weeks. These inventory increases are only partially offset in adjacent weeks and are not significantly hedged with futures. Dealers seem to be compensated for the risk associated with these inventory changes by means of price appreciation in the subsequent week.
Staff Reports , Paper 299

Discussion Paper
Has Liquidity Risk in the Corporate Bond Market Increased?
Vogt, Erik; Fleming, Michael J.; Adrian, Tobias; Shachar, Or; Stackman, Daniel (2015-10-06)
Recent commentary suggests concern among market participants about corporate bond market liquidity. However, we showed in our previous post that liquidity in the corporate bond market remains ample. One interpretation is that liquidity risk might have increased, even as the average level of liquidity remains sanguine. In this post, we propose a measure of liquidity risk in the corporate bond market and analyze its evolution over time.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151006b

Report
Trading activity in the Indian government bond market
Saggar, Seema; Fleming, Michael J.; Sareen, Samita (2016-08-01)
We study how the Indian government bond market functions, how it has changed over time, and what factors help explain some of its features. Looking at the primary market, we describe how underwriting obligations are allocated to primary dealers via auction and identify several significant determinants of the underwriting commission cutoff rate, including the launch of the Negotiated Dealing System-Order Matching System (NDS-OM) electronic trading platform. Turning to the secondary market, we explore the importance of benchmark bonds, the launch of NDS-OM, the growth in trading activity, and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 785

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