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Discussion Paper
Measuring Settlement Fails
McMorrow, Michael; Keane, Frank M.; Fleming, Michael J.; Martin, Antoine (2014-09-19)
In June 2014, settlement fails of U.S. Treasury securities reached their highest level since the implementation of the Treasury fails charge in May 2009, attracting significant attention from market participants. In this post, we review what fails are, why they are of interest, and how they can be measured. In a companion post following this one, we evaluate the particular circumstances of the June 2014 fails.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140919b

Discussion Paper
Market Liquidity after the Financial Crisis
Adrian, Tobias; Shachar, Or; Fleming, Michael J. (2017-06-28)
The possible adverse effects of regulation on market liquidity in the post-crisis period continue to garner significant attention. In a recent paper, we update and unify much of our earlier work on the subject, following up on three series of earlier Liberty Street Economics posts in August 2015, October 2015, and February 2016. We find that dealer balance sheets have continued to stagnate and that various measures point to less abundant funding liquidity. Nonetheless, we do not find clear evidence of a widespread deterioration in market liquidity.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170628

Discussion Paper
Corporate Bond Market Liquidity Redux: More Price-Based Evidence
Vogt, Erik; Fleming, Michael J.; Wojtowicz, Zachary; Adrian, Tobias (2016-02-09)
In a recent post, we presented some preliminary evidence suggesting that corporate bond market liquidity is ample. That evidence relied on bid-ask spread and price impact measures. The findings generated significant discussion, with some market participants wondering about the magnitudes of our estimates, their robustness, and whether such measures adequately capture recent changes in liquidity. In this post, we revisit these measures to more thoroughly document how they have varied over time and the importance of particular estimation approaches, trade size, trade frequency, and the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160209

Report
How do treasury dealers manage their positions?
Fleming, Michael J.; Rosenberg, Joshua V. (2007)
Using data on U.S. Treasury dealer positions from 1990 to 2006, we find evidence of a significant role for dealers in the intertemporal intermediation of new Treasury security supply. Dealers regularly take into inventory a large share of Treasury issuance so that dealer positions increase during auction weeks. These inventory increases are only partially offset in adjacent weeks and are not significantly hedged with futures. Dealers seem to be compensated for the risk associated with these inventory changes by means of price appreciation in the subsequent week.
Staff Reports , Paper 299

Discussion Paper
Introduction to a Series on Market Liquidity: Part 2
Adrian, Tobias; Schaumburg, Ernst; Fleming, Michael J. (2015-10-05)
Market participants and policymakers have raised concerns about the potential adverse effects of financial regulation on market liquidity?the ability to buy and sell securities quickly, at any time, at minimal cost. Market liquidity supports the efficient allocation of capital through financial markets, which is a catalyst for sustainable economic growth. Changes in market liquidity, whether due to regulation or other forces, are therefore of great interest to policymakers and market participants alike.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151005

Journal Article
Trading activity and price transparency in the inflation swap market
Sporn, John; Fleming, Michael J. (2013-05)
The issues of liquidity and price transparency in derivatives markets have taken on greater import given regulatory efforts under way to improve their transparency. To date, the lack of transaction data has impeded the understanding of how the inflation swap and other derivatives markets operate. This article broadens that understanding by using a novel transaction data set to examine trading activity and price transparency in the quickly growing U.S. inflation swap market. The authors find that the market appears reasonably liquid and transparent, despite its over-the-counter nature and ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 19 , Issue May , Pages 45-57

Discussion Paper
How Might Increased Transparency Affect the CDS Market?
Chen, Kathryn; Sarkar, Asani; Li, Ada; Fleming, Michael J.; Jackson, John (2011-11-23)
The credit default swap (CDS) market has grown rapidly since the asset class was developed in the 1990s. In recent years, and especially since the onset of the financial crisis, policymakers both in the United States and abroad have begun to strengthen regulations governing derivatives trading, with a particular focus on the decentralized and opaque nature of current trading arrangements. For example, the Dodd-Frank Act will require U.S.-based market participants to publicly report details of their CDS trades. In this post, we discuss the possible impact of increased transparency in the CDS ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20111123

Discussion Paper
The Recent Bond Market Selloff in Historical Perspective
Adrian, Tobias; Fleming, Michael J. (2013-08-05)
Long-term Treasury yields have risen sharply in recent months. The yield on the most recently issued ten-year note, for example, rose from 1.63 percent on May 2 to 2.74 percent on July 5, reaching its highest level since July 2011. Increasing yields result in realized or mark-to-market losses for fixed-income investors. In this post, we put these losses in historical perspective and investigate whether the yield changes are better explained by expectations of higher short-term rates in the future or by investors demanding greater compensation for holding long-term Treasuries.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130805

Journal Article
What moves the bond market?
Remolona, Eli M.; Fleming, Michael J. (1997-12)
In an examination of the U.S. Treasury securities market, the authors attempt to explain the sharpest price changes and most active trading episodes. They find that each of the twenty-five largest price shocks and twenty-five greatest trading surges can be attributed to just-released macroeconomic announcements. They also measure the market's average reactions to theses announcements and analyze the extent to which the reactions depend on the degree of announcement surprise and on prevailing market conditions. The market's price and trading reactions are found to reflect differences of ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 3 , Issue Dec , Pages 31-50

Discussion Paper
What if? A Counterfactual SOMA Portfolio
Long, Grant; Fleming, Michael J.; Remache, Julie; Leonard, Deborah (2013-08-14)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has actively used changes in the size and composition of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio to implement monetary policy in recent years. These actions have been intended to promote the Committee?s mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability but, as discussed in a prior post, have also generated high levels of portfolio income, contributing in turn to elevated remittances to the U.S. Treasury. In the future, as the accommodative stance of monetary policy is eventually normalized, net portfolio income is likely to decline from ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130814b

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