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Author:Flaaen, Aaron 

Working Paper
Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements : Firm versus Worker Perspective

Prior literature has established that displaced workers suffer persistent earnings losses by following workers in administrative data after mass layoffs. This literature assumes that these are involuntary separations owing to economic distress. This paper examines this assumption by matching survey data on worker-supplied reasons for separations with administrative data. Workers exhibit substantially different earnings dynamics in mass layoffs depending on the reason for separation. Using a new methodology to account for the increased separation rates across all survey responses during a mass ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-029

Discussion Paper
The Role of Global Supply Chains in the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake

The April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in southwest Japan has sent ripple effects through global supply chains. Toyota, Honda and Sony halted most Japanese production following the quake, and more recently General Motors announced production stoppages at four North American plants, citing parts shortages. Such far-reaching consequences of natural disasters are not without precedent.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2016-05-02

Working Paper
The Role of Transfer Prices in Profit-Shifting by U.S. Multinational Firms : Evidence from the 2004 Homeland Investment Act

Using unique transaction-level microdata, this paper documents profit-shifting behavior by U.S. multinational firms via the strategic transfer pricing of intra-firm trade. A simple model reveals how differences in tax rates, both the corporate tax rates across countries and the dividend repatriation tax rate over time, affect the worldwide profit-maximizing transfer-prices set by firms for intra-firm exports and imports. I test the predictions of the model in the context of the 2004 Homeland Investment Act (HIA), a one-time tax repatriation holiday which generated a discreet change in the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-055

Working Paper
Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tohōku Earthquake

Using novel firm-level microdata and leveraging a natural experiment, this paper provides causal evidence for the role of trade and multinational firms in the cross-country transmission of shocks. Foreign multinational affiliates in the U.S. exhibit substantial intermediate input linkages with their source country. The scope for these linkages to generate cross-country spillovers in the domestic market depends on the elasticity of substitution with respect to other inputs. Using the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as an exogenous shock, we estimate this elasticity for those firms most reliant on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-94

Working Paper
Business Exit During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Non-Traditional Measures in Historical Context

Given lags in official data releases, economists have studied "alternative data" measures of business exit resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Such measures are difficult to understand without historical context, so we review official data on business exit in recent decades. Business exit is common in the U.S., with about 7.5 percent of firms exiting annually in recent years, and is countercyclical (particularly recently). Both the high level and the cyclicality of exit are driven by very small firms. We explore a range of alternative measures and indicators of business exit, including ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-089

Working Paper
Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Since the beginning of 2018, the United States has undertaken unprecedented tariff increases, with one goal of these actions being to boost the manufacturing sector. In this paper, we estimate the effect of the tariffs---including retaliatory tariffs by U.S. trading partners---on manufacturing employment, output, and producer prices. A key feature of our analysis is accounting for the multiple ways that tariffs might affect the manufacturing sector, including providing protection for domestic industries, raising costs for imported inputs, and harming competitiveness in overseas markets due ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-086

Discussion Paper
Unraveling the Oil Conundrum : Productivity Improvements and Cost Declines in the U.S. Shale Oil Industry

Why have large declines in oil prices and in the rig count not triggered a more dramatic decline in production? At what price level would a large share of U.S. shale oil production lose economic viability? In this note, we explore these questions with a focus on the U.S. shale oil industry in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian Basin regions.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2016-03-22

Discussion Paper
Factors Affecting Recent U.S. Tariffs on Imports from China

The period from January 2018 to September 2019 saw an unprecedented increase in tariffs placed on U.S. imports, especially on those originating in China. We document the extent to which tariff exclusions and other factors lowered the average effective tariff on Chinese goods. Given that the large majority of tariff exclusions expired on December 31, 2020, our analysis also indicates that U.S. effective tariffs on Chinese goods increased notably at the start of 2021.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2021-02-17

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