Search Results
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.
Journal Article
Putting Recent Inflation in Historical Context
Prices for many items were depressed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we see the effect in current inflation reports.
Journal Article
Finance and Development: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
An analysis of cross-country data sheds light on the link between finance and economic development.
Journal Article
The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of COVID-19 and Government Policies: Part 2
Health and containment policies were effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19, but at a significant economic cost. State-level economic support policies were effective at mitigating this cost and helped further curb the spread of the virus.
Working Paper
Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?
Academic studies show that technical trading rules would have earned substantial excess returns over long periods in foreign exchange markets. However, the approach to risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory. We examine the ability of a wide range of models: CAPM, quadratic CAPM, downside risk CAPM, Carhart’s 4-factor model, the C-CAPM, an extended C-CAPM with durable consumption, Lustig-Verdelhan (LV) carry-trade factor model, and models including macroeconomic factors, and foreign exchange volatility, skewness and liquidity, to explain these technical trading returns. No model ...
Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock
Before the pandemic, shares of delinquencies had already been growing in consumer finance loans, credit card debt, student loans and auto loans. And delinquencies can vary greatly among states.
Journal Article
Immigration and International Trade in U.S. Manufactured Goods
States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.
Journal Article
A Simple Evaluation of Two Decades of Inflation Targeting: Lessons for the New Monetary Policy Strategy
New Fed guidance could deliver more inflation outcomes above the current inflation target.
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1
Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.
Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time
A novel index of physical contact exposure helps to identify the industries that are the most contact-intensive and might reopen later, as well as lower-contact industries that could reopen sooner.