Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations
Some jobs certainly require more close interaction with other folks than other jobs. Which occupations are the most interactive, and which states have higher shares of these jobs?
House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing
Lower housing demand due to quarantine orders, slowing price growth and mortgage originations, and a historically high housing supply are all hitting the economy at the same time.
How the Impact of Social Distancing Ripples through the Economy
Social distancing directly hurts industries that rely on face-to-face contact. But the spillover effect is even affecting industries less dependent on such contact.
Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time
A novel index of physical contact exposure helps to identify the industries that are the most contact-intensive and might reopen later, as well as lower-contact industries that could reopen sooner.
Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock
Before the pandemic, shares of delinquencies had already been growing in consumer finance loans, credit card debt, student loans and auto loans. And delinquencies can vary greatly among states.
Immigration and International Trade in U.S. Manufactured Goods
States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.
Finance and Development: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
An analysis of cross-country data sheds light on the link between finance and economic development.
Construction Permits and Future Housing Supply: Implications for 2020
A decline in housing permits and supply expectations may lead to softening in the 2020 housing market.
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1
Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.