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Author:Estrella, Arturo 

Journal Article
Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital

This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 6, "The role of capital regulation in bank supervision." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27, 1998, was designed to encourage a consensus between the public and private sectors on an agenda for capital regulation in the new century.
Economic Policy Review , Volume 4 , Issue Oct , Pages 191-200

Journal Article
A prolegomenon to future capital requirements

Bank supervisors have made significant strides since 1980 in the area of capital requirements, and they are currently pursuing further refinements. This article looks beyond such developments at longer term supervisory goals. Abstracting to some extent from the current regulatory framework, the author attempts to delineate a set of fundamental principles for future work on capital requirements. He distinguishes minimum capital--an objective standard imposed by regulators across firms--from optimum capital--a subjective standard adopted by individual firms to cover their own risks-- and shows ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Jul , Pages 1-12

Report
Interest rate swaps: an alternative explanation

Research Paper , Paper 8811

Report
Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy

Several articles published in the 1990s have identified empirical relationships between the term structure of real and nominal interest rates, on one hand, and future real output and inflation, on the other. Among these are Mishkin (1990a), Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991), Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Fuhrer and Moore (1995). These articles demonstrate the existence of empirical predictive relationships, but the underlying economic reasons for the empirical regularities remain at least partly as puzzles. This paper presents a theoretical rational expectations model that shows how monetary ...
Research Paper , Paper 9717

Report
Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach.

There is wide agreement that the dynamics of inflation and unemployment are influenced by supply and demand shocks, such as oil price and monetary policy surprises, and by systematic factors such as overlapping contracts. There is less agreement about the relative importance of those determinants. The natural rate model of this paper uses a structural VAR approach to decompose movements in U.S. postwar unemployment and inflation into three orthogonal components. These components correspond, respectively, to systematic or predictable changes, supply shocks, and demand shocks. Orthogonality ...
Research Paper , Paper 9739

Report
Extracting business cycle fluctuations: what do time series filters really do?

Various methods are available to extract the "business cycle component" of a given time series variable. These methods may be derived as solutions to frequency extraction or signal extraction problems and differ in both their handling of trends and noise and their assumptions about the ideal time-series properties of a business cycle component. The filters are frequently illustrated by application to white noise, but applications to other processes may have very different and possibly unintended effects. This paper examines several frequently used filters as they apply to a range of dynamic ...
Staff Reports , Paper 289

Journal Article
Securitization and the efficacy of monetary policy

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission
Economic Policy Review , Volume 8 , Issue May , Pages 243-255

Journal Article
Estimating the funding gap of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Aut , Pages 45-59

Report
The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity

Research Paper , Paper 8907

Journal Article
The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues

Since the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve-the spread between long- and short-term interest rates-is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of the existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past recessions, considerably less attention has been paid to the use of the yield curve as a forecasting tool in real time. This analysis seeks to fill that gap by offering practical guidelines on how best to construct the yield curve indicator and to interpret the measure in real time.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 12 , Issue Jul

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