Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital
This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 6, "The role of capital regulation in bank supervision." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27, 1998, was designed to encourage a consensus between the public and private sectors on an agenda for capital regulation in the new century.
A prolegomenon to future capital requirements
Bank supervisors have made significant strides since 1980 in the area of capital requirements, and they are currently pursuing further refinements. This article looks beyond such developments at longer term supervisory goals. Abstracting to some extent from the current regulatory framework, the author attempts to delineate a set of fundamental principles for future work on capital requirements. He distinguishes minimum capital--an objective standard imposed by regulators across firms--from optimum capital--a subjective standard adopted by individual firms to cover their own risks-- and shows ...
Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy
Several articles published in the 1990s have identified empirical relationships between the term structure of real and nominal interest rates, on one hand, and future real output and inflation, on the other. Among these are Mishkin (1990a), Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991), Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Fuhrer and Moore (1995). These articles demonstrate the existence of empirical predictive relationships, but the underlying economic reasons for the empirical regularities remain at least partly as puzzles. This paper presents a theoretical rational expectations model that shows how monetary ...
Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach.
There is wide agreement that the dynamics of inflation and unemployment are influenced by supply and demand shocks, such as oil price and monetary policy surprises, and by systematic factors such as overlapping contracts. There is less agreement about the relative importance of those determinants. The natural rate model of this paper uses a structural VAR approach to decompose movements in U.S. postwar unemployment and inflation into three orthogonal components. These components correspond, respectively, to systematic or predictable changes, supply shocks, and demand shocks. Orthogonality ...
Extracting business cycle fluctuations: what do time series filters really do?
Various methods are available to extract the "business cycle component" of a given time series variable. These methods may be derived as solutions to frequency extraction or signal extraction problems and differ in both their handling of trends and noise and their assumptions about the ideal time-series properties of a business cycle component. The filters are frequently illustrated by application to white noise, but applications to other processes may have very different and possibly unintended effects. This paper examines several frequently used filters as they apply to a range of dynamic ...
Securitization and the efficacy of monetary policy
Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission
The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues
Since the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve-the spread between long- and short-term interest rates-is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of the existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past recessions, considerably less attention has been paid to the use of the yield curve as a forecasting tool in real time. This analysis seeks to fill that gap by offering practical guidelines on how best to construct the yield curve indicator and to interpret the measure in real time.