Journal Article
The effects of recessions across demographic groups
Wall, Howard J.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2010-01)
The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people and the decline for black workers was one and a half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this ...
Review , Volume 92 , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Business cycle measures
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2010)
Business cycle measures can provide timely statistical evidence of turning points.
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
Where is an oil shock?
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; Wall, Howard J. (2011)
Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question ?What is an oil shock?? and has concluded that oil-price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the US economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil-price shocks by addressing the question Where is an oil shock? , the answer to which reveals a great deal of spatial/directional asymmetry across states. Although most states have typical responses to oil-price shocks?they are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2011-016

Journal Article
Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2010-07)
Oil can be derived from oil sands and oil shale, but the job is both economically and environmentally costly. How high must the price of oil be in order to make these alternatives cost-effective?
The Regional Economist , Issue Jul , Pages 14-15

Newsletter
Retraining displaced U.S. workers
Engemann, Kristie M. (2009-09)
When the current U.S. recession ends and recovery begins, many pre-recession jobs, such as some in financial services and the automobile industry, will not return. So what are the options if jobs in your chosen industry no longer exist? The September 2009 Newsletter focuses on job retraining programs and lists some areas of projected job growth for the near future.
Liber8 Economic Information Newsletter , Issue Sept

Journal Article
Slow and steady in St. Louis
Engemann, Kristie M.; Wall, Howard J. (2006-10)
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct , Pages 16

Journal Article
Hard 'core' inflation
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2005-02)
Monetary Trends , Issue Feb

Journal Article
A journal ranking for the ambitious economist
Wall, Howard J.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2009-05)
The authors devise an "ambition-adjusted" journal ranking based on citations from a short list of top general-interest journals in economics. Underlying this ranking is the notion that an ambitious economist wishes to be acknowledged not only in the highest reaches of the profession, but also outside his or her subfield. In addition to the conceptual advantages that they find in their ambition adjustment, they see two main practical advantages: greater transparency and a consistent treatment of subfields. They compare their 2008 ranking based on citations from 2001 to 2007 with a ranking ...
Review , Volume 91 , Issue May , Pages 127-140

Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2011-05)
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area [MSA]-level data are summed to yield ...
Review , Volume 93 , Issue May

Journal Article
Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates?
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2004-09)
Monetary Trends , Issue Sep