Journal Article
Unconventional oil production: stuck in a rock and a hard place
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2010-07)
Oil can be derived from oil sands and oil shale, but the job is both economically and environmentally costly. How high must the price of oil be in order to make these alternatives cost-effective?
The Regional Economist , Issue Jul , Pages 14-15

Journal Article
Barreling down the road to recession?
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2006-09)
National Economic Trends , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Look who's still working now
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2007-06)
National Economic Trends , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Look who's working now
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2006-04)
National Economic Trends , Issue Apr

Newsletter
U.S. farm subsidies
Engemann, Kristie M. (2008-09)
Why should the average American care about the 2008 Farm Bill and farm subsidies? Farm subsidies can affect the price of food and can influence the amount of taxes we pay. This month's Liber8 newsletter explains why farm subsidies were originally used, spotlights the debate about their continued use, and points out some changes to the 2008 Farm Bill.
Liber8 Economic Information Newsletter , Issue Sept

Journal Article
Business cycle measures
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2010)
Business cycle measures can provide timely statistical evidence of turning points.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Not your father's oil shock
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2010)
Factors other than changes in oil supply may cause changes in oil prices.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2008-10)
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield ...
Regional Economic Development , Issue Oct , Pages 15-29

Journal Article
Working hard or hardly working? the evolution of leisure in the United States
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2007-01)
Although Americans appear to be spending less time on the job than they were a hundred years ago, there's some question as to whether they have more leisure time.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 10-11

Working Paper
Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; Kliesen, Kevin L. (2010)
Hamilton (2005) noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States were preceded by a substantial increase in the price of oil. In this paper, we consider whether oil price shocks significantly increase the probability of recessions in a number of countries. Because business cycle turning points generally are not available for other countries, we estimate the turning points together with oil's effect in a Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. We find that, for most countries, oil shocks do affect the likelihood of entering a recession. In particular, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-007