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Author:Emmons, William R. 

Working Paper
Conflict of interest between borrowers and lenders in credit co- operatives: the case of German co-operative banks

Over the last few decades, the co-operative banking sector in Germany has steadily increased its market share at the expense of other types of banks. This outcome is surprising from the standpoint of traditional economic thinking about co-operatives, which suggests that they are most appropriate for "backward" economies. We develop a model of co-operative banks that highlights the dual role ofmembers as borrowers and lenders. We show that a shift in the median (hence pivotal) member of the co-operative from predominantly a borrower orientation toward a lender orientation causes the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1997-009

Journal Article
Recent developments in wholesale payments systems

Wholesale payments and settlement systems in G-10 countries have undergone significant change in recent years. Notably, central banks have sought to increase the safety and reliability of these systems. In this article, William R. Emmons describes two approaches that have been pursued. Significant progress has been achieved in strengthening (or "securing") many existing payments system arrangements based on net settlement. In addition, many new gross settlement systems have been created, and existing ones have been improved. The article also explores why private-sector financial ...
Review , Issue Nov , Pages 23-43

Journal Article
What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes

This article uses probability forecasts derived from options to assess evolving market uncertainty about Federal Reserve monetary policy actions in a variety of recent events and episodes. Options on federal funds futures contracts reveal a complete probability density function over possible Federal Reserve target rates, thus augmenting the expectations provided by federal funds futures contracts. Option-based forecasts are most useful when more than two federal funds target outcomes are plausible at an upcoming policy meeting.
Review , Volume 88 , Issue Nov , Pages 543-562

The Great Recession’s Impact on Homeownership

In the recession’s aftermath, there were generational differences in homeownership rates, with progressively worsening rates for younger generations.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Economic vulnerability and financial fragility

Unfortunately, many families with the greatest exposure to the economic dislocations of the recent recession also had very risky balance sheets beforehand that were characterized by low levels of liquid assets, high portfolio concentrations in housing, and relatively high balance-sheet leverage. The authors argue that economic vulnerability and risky balance sheets are correlated because they derive from common factors. These factors include a low stock of human capital, inexperience (relative youth), and, in some cases, the legacy of discrimination in housing, education, and employment. ...
Review , Issue Sep , Pages 361-388

Do College Degrees Mean More Wealth?

College degrees usually indicate higher income and wealth over those without. But the college wealth premium for those born more recently is getting smaller.
On the Economy

Periodic Essay
The Importance of Wealth is Growing

In the Balance , Issue 13 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Unequal Degrees of Affluence: Racial and Ethnic Wealth Differences across Education Levels

Family wealth generally increases with education. But new research shows that race and ethnicity can greatly affect the relative payoff. There?s a gap?sometimes wide?between the wealth of Hispanics and African-Americans and the wealth of whites and Asians at every education level, from those with only a high school diploma to those with an advanced degree.
The Regional Economist , Issue October

Working Paper
Relationship loans and regulatory capital: why fair-value accounting is inappropriate for bank loans

Banks have been required to report many securities and all derivatives at fair values under U.S. GAAP rules for many years. Soon, International Accounting Standards will provide some banks with a ?fair-value option? for loans, also. A similar movement toward applying fair values to loans may occur in the U.S. in the near future, too. ; This paper argues that fair-value accounting is inappropriate for banks? relationship loans from the standpoint of safety-and-soundness supervision?that is, for the purposes of calculating a bank?s regulatory capital. The argument is straightforward, although ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2006-02

Is College an Engine of Inequality?

Higher education holds the promise of helping to level the playing field, yet data suggest that Black and Hispanic students are falling behind.
On the Economy

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