Working Paper
A Local-Spillover Decomposition of the Causal Effect of U.S. Defense Spending Shocks
Li, Jingchao; Ebsim, Mahdi; McCrory, Peter B.; Dupor, Bill; Conley, Timothy G. (2020-06-16)
This paper decomposes the causal effect of government defense spending into: (i) a local (or direct) effect, and (ii) a spillover (or indirect) effect. Using state-level defense spending data, we show that a negative cross-state spillover effect explains the existing simultaneous findings of a low aggregate multiplier and a high local multiplier. We show that enlisting disaggregate data improves the precision of aggregate effect estimates, relative to using aggregate time series alone. Moreover, we compare two-step efficient GMM with two alternative moment weighting approaches used in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-014

Journal Article
What Is Driving Student Debt in the Eighth District?
Kozlowski, Julian; Ebsim, Mahdi (2019)
Tuition appears to be a bigger driver of student debt growth in the Eighth District than in the U.S. as a whole.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 2

Blog
How Many Employees Are Prepared to Work from Home?
Gascon, Charles S.; Ebsim, Mahdi (2020-03-23)
Sorting workers by occupation and income helps shed light on who is more likely to be able to work remotely.
On the Economy

Blog
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic
Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Ebsim, Mahdi (2020-04-09)
How have the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent monetary policy response affected the corporate bond market?
On the Economy

Blog
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic II: Heterogeneity across Sectors
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian (2020-04-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on firm borrowing costs have been heterogeneous, with some sectors being more affected than others.
On the Economy

Blog
COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts
Ebsim, Mahdi; Gascon, Charles S. (2020-04-30)
With schools closed due to COVID-19, many full-time workers may drop out of the labor force to take care of their children. Which groups of workers might be most affected?
On the Economy

Blog
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic III: Variance across Sectors and Firms
Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Ebsim, Mahdi (2020-05-11)
Corporate bond spreads widened when COVID-19 initially began spreading, then spreads stabilized. How have spreads fared across individual sectors and issuances from the same firm?
On the Economy

Blog
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic IV: Liquidity Buffers
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-06-12)
The cost of borrowing rose for most firms during the pandemic-related disruption of financial markets, but firms with greater liquidity have had smaller increases in credit spreads.
On the Economy