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Journal Article
Assessing Labor Market Conditions Using High-Frequency Data
When the COVID-19 pandemic struck in March 2020, the U.S. economy experienced a sharp, unexpected recession with large employment losses. The information on employment available from traditional data sources arrives with a lag and does not promptly reflect sudden changes in labor market conditions. In this article, we discuss how new high-frequency data from Homebase and Ultimate Kronos Group can offer critical information on the state of labor markets in real time. Using these datasets, we construct coincident employment indices to assess employment at a high frequency. Employment during the ...
Journal Article
Labor Market Polarization: How Does the District Compare with the Nation?
See why jobs in the District, nation are increasingly becoming high-skill or low-skill. The decline of middle-skill jobs may be widening income inequality.
Working Paper
International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs
Over the last few decades, international trade has increased at a rapid pace, altering domestic production and labor demand in different sectors of the economy. A growing literature studies the heterogeneous effects of trade shocks on workers’ employment and on welfare when reallocation decisions are costly. The estimated effects critically depend on data on workers’ reallocation patterns, which is typically plagued with coding errors. In this paper, I study the consequences of misclassification errors for estimates of the labor market effects of international trade and show that ...
Journal Article
Which Jobs Have Been Hit Hardest by COVID-19?
Between mid-March and the end of April, U.S. unemployment rolls rose quickly to 33 million, while the unemployment rate jumped to almost 15%.
Journal Article
The Rise of Automation: How Robots May Impact the U.S. Labor Market
The growing presence of robots may affect U.S. demand for routine manual jobs like assembly work.
Working Paper
International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs
Over the last few decades, international trade has increased at a rapid pace, altering domestic production and labor demand in different sectors of the economy. A growing literature has studied the heterogeneous effects of trade shocks on workers’ industry and occupation employment and on welfare when reallocation decisions are costly. The estimated effects critically depend on data on workers’ reallocation patterns, which is typically plagued with coding errors. In this paper, I study the consequences of misclassification errors for estimates of the labor market effects of international ...
Retirements Surge for Older Workers during COVID-19
Though retirement decisions vary by different age groups, the COVID-19 pandemic increased retirement rates for those age 66 and older.
Journal Article
A Cross-Country Comparison of Labor Force Participation
The labor force participation rates for prime-working-age men have been falling across countries.
Unemployment and Wage Inflation: Recent Findings Using State Data
Both state-level data and individual-level data suggest that periods with low unemployment rates are also periods with more rapid wage growth, an analysis finds.
Journal Article
The Case of the Reappearing Phillips Curve: A Discussion of Recent Findings
The Phillips curve seems to have flattened over time. In this article, we use a simple New Keynesian model to analyze potential pitfalls in the estimation of the slope of the structural Phillips curve.