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Author:Diebold, Francis X. 

Working Paper
The past, present, and future of macroeconomic forecasting

Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and, hence, rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed, and structural macroeconomic forecasting is poised for resurgence.
Working Papers , Paper 97-20

Working Paper
Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data

We propose a constructive, multivariate framework for assessing agreement between (generally misspecified) dynamic equilibrium models and data, which enables a complete second-order comparison of the dynamic properties of models and data. We use bootstrap algorithms to evaluate the significance of deviations between models and data, and we use goodness-of-fit criteria to produce estimators that optimize economically relevant loss functions. We provide a detailed illustrative application to modeling the U.S. cattle cycle.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-23

Discussion Paper
Comparing predictive accuracy I: an asymptotic test

We propose and evaluate an explicit test of the null hypothesis of no difference in the accuracy of two competing forecasts. In contrast to previously developed tests, a wide variety of accuracy measures can be used (in particular, the loss function need not be quadratic, and need not even be symmetric), and forecast errors can be non-Gaussian, nonzero mean, serially correlated and contemporaneously correlated.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 52

Working Paper
Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 81

Discussion Paper
Scoring the leading indicators

Special Studies Papers , Paper 206

Working Paper
Near-rationality and strategic complementarity in a macroeconomic model: policy effects, persistence and multipliers

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 205

Working Paper
Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss

Prediction problems involving asymmetric loss functions arise routinely in many fields, yet the theory of optimal prediction under asymmetric loss is not well developed. We study the optimal prediction problem under general loss structures and characterize the optimal predictor. We compute it numerically in less tractable cases. A key theme is that the conditionally optimal forecast is biased under asymmetric loss and that the conditionally optimal amount of bias is time-varying in general and depends on higher-order conditional moments. Thus, for example, volatility dynamics (e.g., GARCH ...
Working Papers , Paper 97-11

Working Paper
Unit roots in economic time series: a selective survey

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 49

Discussion Paper
Real exchange rates under the gold standard

Purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics. Empirically, it is also one of the most hotly contested. Numerous recent studies, for example, have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post-Bretton-Woods float and have reached different conclusions. We assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons. First, the post-1973 data contain, by definition, only a very limited amount of the low-frequency information relevant for examination of long-run parity. Second, the dynamic ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 32

Working Paper
The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models

We derive the class of arbitrage-free affine dynamic term structure models that approximate the widely-used Nelson-Siegel yield-curve specification. Our theoretical analysis relates this new class of models to the canonical representation of the three-factor arbitrage-free affine model. Our empirical analysis shows that imposing the Nelson-Siegel structure on this canonical representation greatly improves its empirical tractability; furthermore, we find that improvements in predictive performance are achieved from the imposition of absence of arbitrage.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2007-20

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