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Author:Dewald, William G. 

Working Paper
U.S. official forecasts of Group of Seven economic performance, 1976-90

In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of the U.S. Treasury Department forecasts of real growth and inflation from 1976 to 1990 for the Group of Seven (G-7) economies. The accuracy of these forecasts is measured against the standard of actual real world growth and inflation as subsequently published in the Treasury's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The primary comparison is to forecasts made by the OECD for each of the G-7 nations, but for the United States and Canada, we compare the forecasts to those made by the Blue Chip consensus and the Federal Reserve 'Greenbook'.
Working Papers , Paper 1994-030

Journal Article
Money and deflation in Japan

International Economic Trends , Issue Aug

Working Paper
Inflation, real interest tax wedges, and capital formation

Inflation magnifies the distorting effects of taxation when the tax treatment of interest income and expense is not fully indexed to inflation. The distortion involves a real interest tax wedge which is the difference between the real before tax interest rate that influences fully taxed investors and the real after tax interest rate that influences savers. Reducing the real tax wedge by eliminating inflation or indexing would stimulate private saving and non-residential investment, but decrease tax receipts and the tax deductions that subsidize home ownership.
Working Papers , Paper 1998-005

Working Paper
Replication and scientific standards in economics a decade later: the impact of JMCB project

Scientific inquiry embodies skepticism. Researchers are trained to scrutinize every result, doubting not only the truth but also the tests of every hypothesis. Research papers in professional journals typically present only summaries of results, however, providing neither the programs nor data that a reader requires fully understanding -- and questioning -- the authors' tests. The Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking project a decade ago was the first attempt by the editor of a major journal to furnish readers with the data and programs used by the journal's authors. The project revealed the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1994-007

Journal Article
U.S. official forecasts of G-7 economies, 1976-90

Review , Issue Mar

Journal Article
M2 velocity looks to be on a new track

Monetary Trends , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Deficits and monetary growth

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
CBO and OMB projections, adjusted for inflation, show federal budget deficit under control

Federal budget deficits continue to dominate discussions of the short-term economic future of the United States. This article by William G. Dewald stands in stark contrast to the aura of pessimism that pervades most such discussions. Dewalds optimism derives from the inflation adjustment factors he applies to the CBO and OMB deficit projections based on the 1986 Congressional Budget Resolution. He insists that pessimism about deficits stems from a tendency to focus on nominal rather than real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) deficits. Inflation mitigates the burden of a given nominal deficit in two ...
Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue Nov , Pages 15-22

Journal Article
Monetarism is dead; long live the quantity theory

Review , Issue Jul , Pages 3-18

Journal Article
Monetary growth, inflation, and unemployment: projections through 1983

Economic Review , Volume 63 , Issue Nov , Pages 3-17