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Author:Del Negro, Marco 

Working Paper
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization

The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-002

Working Paper
Online Estimation of DSGE Models

This paper illustrates the usefulness of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods in approximating DSGE model posterior distributions. We show how the tempering schedule can be chosen adaptively, document the accuracy and runtime benefits o fgeneralized data tempering for “online” estimation (that is, re-estimating a model asnew data become available), and provide examples of multimodal posteriors that are well captured by SMC methods. We then use the online estimation of the DSGE model to compute pseudo-out-of-sample density forecasts and study the sensitivity ofthe predictive performance to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-023

Discussion Paper
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Normalization

This Note summarizes analysis conducted in our recent FEDS working paper that seeks to understand the fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization program.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2018-01-09

Discussion Paper
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Normalization

This Note summarizes analysis conducted in our recent FEDS working paper that seeks to understand the fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization program.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2017-01-09

Journal Article
How good is what you've got? DSGE-VAR as a toolkit for evaluating DSGE models

In the constant search for better models to help guide policy decisions, central banks have begun to use and develop dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Although such models were until recently considered theoretically sound but overly restrictive, newly developed methods have proved successful in specifying DSGE models that fit the macroeconomic data well. ; Policy institutions that use DSGE models in policymaking need a reliable method for evaluating the models? effectiveness. This article reviews a procedure recently proposed by the authors and their colleagues. The ...
Economic Review , Volume 91 , Issue Q 2 , Pages 21-37

Journal Article
Take your model bowling: forecasting with general equilibrium models

During the past two decades, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have taken center stage in academic macroeconomics. Nonetheless, these models are still rarely used in policy-making and forecasting. ; This article describes the workings of the DSGE-VAR, a procedure that combines DSGE models and vector autoregressions (VARs). The procedure uses DSGE models as priors to restrict the VAR?s parameters. Since the VAR?s parameters are imprecisely estimated unless a very long time series of data is available, using DSGE priors can improve the VAR?s forecasting performance. Moreover, ...
Economic Review , Volume 88 , Issue Q4 , Pages 35-50

Journal Article
Global banks, local crises: bad news from Argentina

Banking crises have been a recurrent phenomenon in Latin America over the past few decades. Some have argued that the internationalization of the banking sector has ushered in a new era: what used to be systemic risk from the perspective of local banks with undiversified portfolios might no longer be systemic from the standpoint of large international banks. ; Argentina's experience shows that the presence of international banks was not enough to prevent local banking crises and sizable losses to depositors. The "bad news" from Argentina, this article argues, is that depositors in ...
Economic Review , Volume 87 , Issue Q3 , Pages 89-106

Journal Article
Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity

Policy and investment decisions are made with an eye toward future economic conditions, and an econometric model that can correctly forecast directional changes in the business cycle would be a boon to policymakers, the business community, and the general public. This article provides some evidence on econometric models' ability to predict these directional changes, also known as turning points, in an effort to answer the question, How good is the state of the art in turning point forecasting? ; The author first discusses the definition of turning points and describes different approaches to ...
Economic Review , Volume 86 , Issue Q2 , Pages 1-12

Working Paper
The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?

A stylized fact in the portfolio diversification literature is that diversifying across countries is more effective than diversifying across industries in terms of risk reduction. But with the rise in comovement across national stock markets since the mid-1990s, this no longer appears to be true. We explore whether this change is driven by global integration and therefore likely to be permanent, or if it is a temporary phenomenon associated with the recent stock market bubble. Our results point to the latter hypothesis. In the aftermath of the bubble, diversifying across countries may ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2002-17

Working Paper
Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs

This paper uses a simple New Keynesian monetary DSGE model as a prior for a vector autoregression and shows that the resulting model is competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting and can be used for policy analysis.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2002-14

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