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Working Paper
Anticipating bailouts: the incentive-conflict model and the collapse of the Ohio Deposit Guarantee Fund
An examination of the effect of the collapse of the Ohio Deposit Guarantee Fund on insured financial institutions in the context of the incentive-conflict model developed by Edward Kane, finding that differences in abnormal returns of FDIC and FSLIC firms tend to reaffirm that taxpayer-funded bailouts are a natural outgrowth of the moral-hazard problem that taxpayers face.
Journal Article
Settlement delays and stock prices
An analysis of whether investors consider the length of the settlement delay between the time a stock trade is executed and the security is delivered. By modeling stock returns and conducting regression tests, the author concludes that stock prices do reflect the effects of the settlement delay.
Working Paper
A generalized method for detecting abnormal returns and changes in systematic risk
The authors generalize traditional event-study techniques to allow for event-induced parameter shifts, shifting variances, and firm-specific event periods. Their method, which nests traditional methods, also permits systematic risk to change gradually during the event period and exit the period at higher or lower levels. The authors use their approach to study 132 banks that acquired other institutions between 1989 and 1995. The authors find a significant change in the systematic risk of the acquiring firms, significant ARCH effects, and an event period that ends before the date of the ...
Working Paper
A discrete choice model of dividend reinvestment plans: classification and prediction
We study 852 companies with dividend reinvestment plans in 1999 matched by total assets to 852 companies without such plans. We use discrete choice methods to predict the classification of these companies. We interpret the misclassified companies as being likely to switch their plan status. That is, if a firm's financial data suggest that a company should have had a dividend reinvestment plan in 1999 but did not, then we expect that it would be more likely to institute a plan than the other companies in the sample. Conversely, if it did have a plan but the financial data suggest that it ...
Working Paper
Capital forbearance and thrifts: an ex post examination of regulatory gambling
This paper estimates the losses embedded in the capital positions of the 996 FSLIC-insured savings and loan institutions that did not meet capital standards at the end of the 1970s. We compare the estimated cost of resolving the insolvencies of these institutions at the end of the 1970s with the actual failure-resolution costs for those that were closed by July 3 1, 1992, and the projected resolution costs for the remaining thrifts that are likely to be closed. Our results show that even when one considers only the direct costs associated with delayed closure of economically failed thrifts, ...
Working Paper
Expected returns to stock investments by angel investors in groups
Angel investors invest billions of dollars in thousands of entrepreneurial projects annually, far more than the number of firms that obtain venture capital. Previous research has calculated realized internal rates of return on angel investments, but empirical estimates of expected returns have not yet been produced. Although calculations of realized returns are a valuable contribution, expected returns, rather than realized returns, drive investment decisions. We use a new data set and statistical framework to produce the first empirical estimates of expected returns on angel investments. We ...
Conference Paper
The asset flexibility option and the value of deposit insurance
Working Paper
Regime changes in stock returns
The authors model stock returns as a stochastic function of a constant expected return and the financing costs resulting from delayed delivery, to examine three potential sources of instability in stock-return model parameter estimates.
Working Paper
Understanding 401(k) plans
Questions about the future of the Social Security system continue to surface. As a result, interest in employer-sponsored retirement plans and other retirement investment options increases. But the restrictions and rules associated with various defined benefit plans such as 401(k), 403 (b), and 457 plans can be confusing, and these plans have risks of their own. The authors explore these plans and explain the need to view retirement savings as only one part of a portfolio.
Journal Article
Merchant acquirers and payment card processors: a look inside the black box
Each year, hundreds of millions of credit and debit cardholders make billions of transactions worth trillions of dollars. Yet few consumers are aware that such transactions travel through, and are made possible by a highly evolved group of intermediaries that sign up merchants to accept cards, handle card transactions, manage the dispute-resolution process, and, along with regulatory agencies, set rules that govern card transactions. ; This article demystifies the ?Black Box? of the transactions process for payment cards. After describing a simple transaction with a private-label card, the ...