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Has the cost of fighting inflation fallen?
During the 1980s, many OECD countries adopted labor-market policies designed to enhance wage flexibility and reduce unemployment. They also attempted to bolster the credibility of their anti-inflation measures through exchange rate and fiscal policies. These measures should have lowered the costs associated with fighting inflation. In this paper, we compare sacrifice ratio measures of the cost of disinflation in the most recent OECD recession with measures for the mid-seventies and early-eighties recessions. Surprisingly, in the overwhelming majority of OECD countries, the cost of reducing ...
Capacity utilization-inflation linkages: a cross-country analysis
This paper analyzes whether capacity utilization in manufacturing is a reliable inflation indicator over and above economy-wide indicators of inflationary pressure and examines different theories on the propagation of inflation by testing their implications for the relationship between capacity utilization and inflation. Three mechanisms whereby shocks to manufacturing can impact on inflation are explored: First, direct pressure on producer prices in manufacturing arising from bottlenecks and a slowdown in productivity growth at high operating rates, second, spill-overs of ...
Expected inflation and real interest rates based on index-linked bond prices: the U.K. experience
Some analysts have argued that indexed bonds convey important information for the formulation of monetary policy. This article investigates whether a market measure of expected inflation derived from British indexed gilt prices would be useful in predicting future inflation and real economic activity.