Search Results

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Davis, J. Scott 

Discussion Paper
Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations

This paper develops a method for measuring the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations that does not require estimates of long-run inflation expectations. Such estimates exist for only a few developed economies, and even then only a short time series is available. By not requiring estimates of long-term inflation expectations, this method is able to measure the anchoring of inflation expectations in sixty-four different developed and developing countries. In addition, with rolling-window estimations we can measure the anchoring of expectations across time within a country, and thus we ...
Staff Papers , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Relating commodity prices to underlying inflation: the role of expectations

Temporary supply factors may boost some commodity prices?a drought in the Midwest can jolt food costs, or a conflict in the Middle East might propel oil higher. These, in turn, can increase the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the headline inflation rate. ; Because central bank anti-inflation measures sometimes take a long time to affect prices, policymakers don?t necessarily react to short-term fluctuations in headline inflation (an overall rate that?s not seasonally adjusted). In fact, the mandate of many inflation-targeting central banks is to aim to keep headline inflation at a ...
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes

Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention

This paper shows how foreign exchange intervention can be used to avoid a sudden stop in capital flows in a small open emerging market economy. The model is based around the concept of an under-borrowing equilibrium defined by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2020). With a low elasticity of substitution between traded and non-traded goods, real exchange rate depreciation may generate a precipitous drop in aggregate demand and a tightening of borrowing constraints, leading to an equilibrium with an inefficiently low level of borrowing. The central bank can preempt this deleveraging cycle through ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 405

Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations

Improvements in Federal Reserve credibility over the last 40 years have ensured that inflation expectations, particularly long-term inflation expectations, have so far remained well-anchored despite surging current inflation.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Capital controls as an instrument of monetary policy

Large swings in capital flows into and out of emerging markets can potentially lead to excessive volatility in asset prices and credit supply. In order to lessen the impact of capital flows on financial instability, a number of researchers and policy markers have recently proposed the use of capital controls. This paper considers the benefit of adding capital controls as a potential instrument of monetary policy in a small open economy. In a DSGE framework, we find that when domestic agents are subject to collateral constraints and the value of collateral is subject to fluctuations driven by ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 171

Journal Article
Emerging-market debtor nations likely to follow Fed rate boosts

A Federal Reserve interest rate increase can lead to capital flows reversing and exiting emerging markets. Central banks in emerging markets that are highly dependent on outside capital will be tempted to match the Fed increase in an attempt to curb capital flight.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows

While prior to the global financial crisis, the empirical international capital flow literature has focused on net capital flows (the current account), since the crisis there has been an increased focus on gross flows. In this paper we jointly analyze global drivers of gross flows (outflows plus inflows) and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model. We find evidence of two global factors, which we call the GFC (global financial cycle) factor and a commodity price factor as they closely track respectively the Miranda-Agrippino and Rey asset price factor and an ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 357

Don’t Look to the 2013 Tantrum for the Effect of Tapering on Emerging Markets

Many emerging markets have improved their external balance sheets since the volatility evidenced during the "taper tantrum" of 2013 and would be much less vulnerable to Federal Reserve tapering today.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement: the role of balance sheets

This paper investigates the effect of international financial integration on international business cycle co-movement. We first show with a reduced form empirical approach how capital market integration (equity) has a negative effect on business cycle co-movement while credit market integration (debt) has a positive effect. We then construct a model that can replicate these empirical results.> ; In the model, capital market integration is modeled as crossborder equity ownership and involves wealth effects. Credit market integration is modeled as cross-border borrowing and lending between ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 89

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Jel Classification

F40 12 items

F3 9 items

F4 9 items

E30 8 items

E50 7 items

F30 7 items

show more (24)

FILTER BY Keywords

Capital Flows 12 items

monetary policy 9 items

international economics 7 items

global financial cycle 6 items

inflation 6 items

COVID-19 5 items

show more (68)

PREVIOUS / NEXT