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Report
Redefining the labor market. SF Fed economists Rob Valletta, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Mary C. Daly share their thoughts on the U.S. labor market with fellow economist President John Williams
Changes in demographics, and in employer and worker needs, have redefined the U.S. labor market. We discuss the "new normal" in our 2015 annual report, What We've Learned?and why it matters. Observations include how the gig economy?or sharing economy?is affecting the part-time workforce. We also look at influences on labor force participation rates and clarify the math behind sluggish wage growth. A consideration for both is the retirement of higher-earning baby boomers and the increase in steady employment for lower-wage workers.
Journal Article
The Choice to See
Public service is not a job. It’s a choice to see people clearly and to act on what you see. This is the message of the following commencement speech delivered on May 12 by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.
Journal Article
Labor markets in the global financial crisis
The impact of the global financial crisis on labor markets varied widely from country to country. In the United States, the unemployment rate nearly doubled from its pre-recession level. The rate rose much less in the United Kingdom and barely changed in Germany, despite larger declines in gross domestic product. Institutional and technological changes since the 1970s had previously made relationships between output and unemployment more homogeneous across countries. But the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence as countries adopted different labor market policies to adjust ...
Working Paper
Inequality and poverty in the United States: the effects of changing family behavior and rising wage dispersion
The trend toward increasing inequality in family income in the United States since the late 1960s is well documented. Among key possible explanations for this increase are rising dispersion in individual earnings, changes in female labor supply decisions, and changes in family composition and living arrangements. We analyze the contribution of these factors to changes in family income inequality and poverty during the years 1969-1998, focusing on labor supply and family structure as behavioral changes but accounting also for changes in the distribution of male earnings. Our analyses rely on ...
Journal Article
Jobless recovery redux?
Although the pace of layoffs appears to be subsiding and the overall economy is showing hints of stabilization, most forecasters expect unemployment to continue to increase in coming months and to recede only gradually as recovery takes hold. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate this projection using data on three labor market indicators: worker flows into and out of unemployment; involuntary part-time employment; and temporary layoffs. We pay particular attention to how these indicators compare with data from previous episodes of recession and recovery. Our analysis generally supports ...
Working Paper
Left behind: SSI in the era of welfare reform
SSI was established in 1972, born out of a compromise at the time between those wanting to provide a guaranteed income floor and those wishing to limit it to individuals not expected to work: the aged, blind, and disabled. SSI is now the largest federal means-tested program in the United States, serving a population dominated by low-income adults and children with disabilities. With other forms of federal support devolving to state programs (e.g., welfare), policymakers pressing to redefine social expectations about who should and should not work, and the Americans with Disabilities Act ...
Speech
2020 Lessons, 2021 Priorities
Virtual Presentation at Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Tuesday, December 1, 2020
Journal Article
Educational attainment, unemployment, and wage inflation
We investigate the impact of rising educational attainment on wage inflation and the equilibrium (non-inflationary) rate of unemployment. Rising educational attainment may reduce wage pressures by shifting the composition of the labor force towards groups with lower equilibrium unemployment rates, or it may increase wage pressures through increased reliance on groups whose wages are relatively responsive to changes in unemployment. A measure of aggregate unemployment adjusted for changes in the age and education structure of the labor force performs well in Phillips curve estimates of the ...
Journal Article
From Gaps to Growth: Equity as a Path to Prosperity
The pandemic has shined a vivid light on the deep roots of economic inequity, showing that the rules are not the same for everyone. Persistent, unfair gaps in opportunity and well-being across different groups in our society limit people’s potential. Eliminating these inequities could substantially boost GDP and increase the economy’s long-run rate of growth, leading to greater prosperity for all.
Speech
What the Moment Demands
Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress, Frankfurt, Germany, November 17, 2023, 3:30 PM CET (local), 6:30 AM PST