Rising price of energy
Jobless recovery redux?
Although the pace of layoffs appears to be subsiding and the overall economy is showing hints of stabilization, most forecasters expect unemployment to continue to increase in coming months and to recede only gradually as recovery takes hold. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate this projection using data on three labor market indicators: worker flows into and out of unemployment; involuntary part-time employment; and temporary layoffs. We pay particular attention to how these indicators compare with data from previous episodes of recession and recovery. Our analysis generally supports ...
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
This note examines labor market performance across countries through the lens of Okun?s Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial crisis of the 2000s, the Okun?s Law relationship between output and unemployment became more homogenous across countries. These changes presumably reflected institutional and technological changes. But, at least in the short term, the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence, in part because the affected countries adopted different labor market policies in response to the global demand shock.
The New Stone Soup
Remarks at the Iveagh House Lecture, Dublin, Ireland, by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February 10, 2020.
Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law
The traditional relationship between unemployment and output growth known as Okun?s law appeared to break down during the Great Recession. This raised the question of whether this rule of thumb was still meaningful as a forecasting tool. However, recent revisions to GDP data show that its relation with unemployment followed a fairly typical cyclical pattern compared with past deep recessions and slow recoveries. The comparatively common patterns suggest that rumors of the death of Okun?s law during the Great Recession were greatly exaggerated.
Sustaining Growth: The Balancing Act
Figures presented during a lecture at Wellesley College, Wellesley, Massachusetts, Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, October 16, 2018.
Achieving Full Employment in the Modern Economy
Slides presented during a lecture at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February 20, 2019.
A Strong Economy—But We Can Aim Higher
Remarks to the Regional Economic Development for Eastern Idaho (REDI), Idaho Falls, Idaho, Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 12, 2018.
Beyond Kuznets: persistent regional inequality in China
Regional inequality in China appears to be persistent and even growing in the past two decades. We study potential offsetting factors and interprovincial migration to shed light on the sources of this persistence. We find that some of the inequality could be attributed to differences in quality of labor, industry composition, and geographical location of provinces. We also demonstrate that interprovincial migration, while driven in part by wage differences across provinces, does not offset these differences. Finally, we find that interprovincial redistribution did not help offset regional ...
Why has wage growth stayed strong?
Despite a severe recession and modest recovery, real wage growth has stayed relatively solid. A key reason seems to be downward nominal wage rigidities, that is, the tendency of employers to avoid cutting the dollar value of wages. This phenomenon means that, in nominal terms, wages tend not to adjust downward when economic conditions are poor. With inflation relatively low in recent years, these rigidities have limited reductions in the real wages of a large fraction of U.S. workers.