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Working Paper
Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks
Monetary policy research using time series methods has been criticized for using more information than the Federal Reserve had available in setting policy. To quantify the role of this criticism, we propose a method to estimate a VAR with real-time data while accounting for the latent nature of many economic variables, such as output. Our estimated monetary policy shocks are closely correlated with a typically estimated measure. The impulse response functions are broadly similar across the methods. Our evidence suggests that the use of revised data in VAR analyses of monetary policy shocks may not be a serious limitation.
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean; Evans, Charles L.
DATE: 2000
Journal Article
Commentary on Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 2009-07
Journal Article
How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?
If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 1999-09
Journal Article
Consumer confidence surveys: can they help us forecast consumer spending in real time?
In ?Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?,? Dean Croushore uses the Philadelphia Fed?s real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time ? that is, real-time data ? make measures of consumer confidence more valuable for forecasting?
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 2006-07
Journal Article
What are the costs of disinflation?
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 1992-05
Journal Article
Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 1993-11
Journal Article
U.S. coins: forecasting change
Our next article talks about change-as in coins. Every year, the government produces about 70 new coins for every man, woman, and child. But the economy's need for coins can vary from year to year. So how do the U.S. Mint, which makes the coins, and the Federal Reserve, which distributes them, decide how many coins the economy needs? In "U.S. Coins: Forecasting Change," Dean Croushore highlights some facts about coins and describes how demand for change is forecast.
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 2003-04
Journal Article
The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years
The decisions of households, firms, and government agencies depend on forecasts of the overall economy. Large firms and the federal government often have the resources to hire their own economists to provide forecasts. But households, small firms, and local governments often depend on surveys of forecasters to get their information. In this article, Dean Croushore spotlights the Livingston Survey, which, even after 50 years, still provides useful forecasts of the economy.
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 1997-03
Journal Article
Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s
For most of the 1990s, forecasters have been predicting an upturn in inflation. Yet, over that same period, the United States has experienced stable or declining inflation. Why have forecasts been at odds with reality? And why does it matter? In this article, Dean Croushore considers some answers to these questions and explains why inflation is the economic surprise of the decade.
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean
DATE: 1998-07
Journal Article
Evaluating McCallum's rule for monetary policy
AUTHORS: Croushore, Dean; Stark, Tom
DATE: 1995-01