Search Results
Journal Article
Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?
The expansion of United States manufacturing exports has spread unevenly across states. Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard use shift-share analysis to account for the difference between a state?s manufacturing export growth and national manufacturing export growth between 1988 and 1998. Three effects are examined. The industry mix effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were relatively more concentrated in industries whose exports expanded faster than the national average. The destination effect indicates that a ...
Journal Article
How the 1992 legislation will affect European financial services
Journal Article
Income taxes: who pays and how much?
Journal Article
Measuring Household Distress and Potential Policy Impacts
Government policies such as income support and debt relief may help explain low levels of household financial distress, but outcomes are uncertain once assistance ends.
Journal Article
Going down: the Asian crisis and U.S. exports
The Asian financial and economic crisis has attracted much attention to the trade links among the United States and countries throughout Asia. Until the crisis, U.S. exports to East Asia were growing rapidly. In this article, Patricia S. Pollard and Cletus C. Coughlin examine the abrupt decline in exports and provide estimates of the sizes of the export shock both to the U.S. economy as a whole and to specific sectors. More than half the industries they studied experienced declines in exports to East Asia of more than 15 percent; however, focusing solely on the export data overstates the ...
Journal Article
The crisis that wasn't: Asia and the Eighth District
The East Asian financial crisis sent economies world wide reeling. So how did the Eighth District remain relatively unscathed?
Working Paper
Inter-temporal differences in the income elasticity of demand for lottery tickets
We estimate annual income elasticities of demand for lottery tickets using roughly twenty years of county-level data for three states. We find that the income elasticity of demand (and thus the tax burden) for lottery tickets has changed over time. We argue that these changes are due to changes in a state's lottery game portfolio and the growth in consumer income. Trends in the income elasticity of demand for instant and online lottery games appear to be different. Our results question the long-term growth potential of lottery revenue and have policy implications for state governments and ...
Working Paper
Interregional Migration and Housing Vacancy: Theory and Empirics
We examine homeowner vacancy rate interdependencies over time and space through the channel of migration. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating interregional spillovers due to some households’ desires to migrate between regions and by allowing for regime-switching behavior. Our empirical analysis of vacancy rates for the entire U.S. and for Census regions provides visual evidence for the possibility of regime-switching behavior. We explicitly test our model by estimating basic Vector Autoregression (VAR) and ...
Journal Article
The increasing importance of proximity for exports from U.S. states
Changes in income, trade policies, transportation costs, technology, and many other variables affect the geographic pattern of international trade flows. This paper focuses on the changing geography of merchandise exports from individual U.S. states to foreign countries. Generally speaking, the geographic distribution of state exports has changed so that trade has become more intense with nearby countries relative to distant countries. All states, however, did not experience similar changes. As measured by the distance of trade, which is the average distance that a state?s international trade ...