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Author:Coughlin, Cletus C. 

Journal Article
District tops U.S. in growth of exports to China

The states in the Eighth Federal Reserve District are reporting faster growth in exports to China than is the U.S. as a whole. Missouri is leading the region's pack, with an annual rate of growth topping 31 percent.
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct , Pages 14-16

Working Paper
Trade policy opinions at the state level

Despite economists' nearly universal support for free trade policies, the general public has serious reservations about free trade. To understand this opposition, one must understand the preferences of individuals as they relate to the policy choices of policymakers. Ideally, one would like to know how these preferences differ across regions because legislators who represent their constituents in the U.S. Congress cast the actual votes on trade policies. The present study produces estimates by state of trade preferences linked directly to individual preferences. ; Scheve and Slaughter (2001a) ...
Working Papers , Paper 2001-006

Journal Article
The disconnect over free trade

International Economic Trends , Issue May

Journal Article
Income taxes: who pays and how much?

National Economic Trends , Issue Mar

Journal Article
International travel: double trouble

International Economic Trends , Issue May

Journal Article
Going down: the Asian crisis and U.S. exports

The Asian financial and economic crisis has attracted much attention to the trade links among the United States and countries throughout Asia. Until the crisis, U.S. exports to East Asia were growing rapidly. In this article, Patricia S. Pollard and Cletus C. Coughlin examine the abrupt decline in exports and provide estimates of the sizes of the export shock both to the U.S. economy as a whole and to specific sectors. More than half the industries they studied experienced declines in exports to East Asia of more than 15 percent; however, focusing solely on the export data overstates the ...
Review , Issue Mar , Pages 33-46

Journal Article
World trade: pirated by the downturn

A post-World War II record decline in world trade is likely in 2009.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
The controversy over free trade: the gap between economists and the general public

Despite economists? nearly universal support of free trade, the general public in the United States has serious reservations about it. In this article, Cletus C. Coughlin examines the reasons for this difference of opinion and the primary suggestions for bridging this gap.> Economists stress that free trade allows and, in fact, forces a nation to maximize the (net) value of the goods and services produced within its borders. Similarly, free trade allows consumers to maximize the net benefits from the goods and services that they purchase and consume. In addition, free trade improves a ...
Review , Volume 84 , Issue Jan. , Pages 1-22

Working Paper
Local Polynomial Regressions versus OLS for Generating Location Value Estimates: Which is More Efficient in Out-of-Sample Forecasts?

As an alternative to ordinary least squares (OLS), we estimate location values for single family houses using a standard housing price and characteristics dataset by local polynomial regressions (LPR), a semi-parametric procedure. We also compare the LPR and OLS models in the Denver metropolitan area in the years 2003, 2006 and 2010 with out-of-sample forecasting. We determine that the LPR model is more efficient than OLS at predicting location values in counties with greater densities of sales. Also, LPR outperforms OLS in 2010 for all 5 counties in our dataset. Our findings suggest that LPR ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-14

Journal Article
The exceptional 1990s

National Economic Trends , Issue Mar

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