Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 48.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Chudik, Alexander 

Journal Article
Global, National Business Cycles and Energy Explain Texas Metro Growth

A mix of global, national and state-specific shocks help drive employment fluctuations between U.S. states. Econometric modeling shows such differences among metropolitan areas also reflect a mix of shocks. Texas cities strongly tied to oil and gas activity appear more affected by energy-sector shocks than other metros in the state.
Economic Letter , Volume 13 , Issue 4 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Consuming price differences persist among eight Texas cities

The differences in what consumers pay for a given product in eight Texas cities increased considerably in the 2000s?Dallas being by far the most expensive city in the sample. A strong price adjustment mechanism, however, ensures that the relative price between any two Texas locations tended to rapidly revert to its mean value
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 14 , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

The growth of globalization in recent decades has increased the importance of external factors as drivers of the business cycle in many countries. Globalization affects countries not just at the macro level but at the level of states and metro areas as well. This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region-specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual U.S. states and metro areas. We document significant heterogeneity in the sensitivity of states and metro areas to global shocks, and show that direct trade linkages are not the only channel through ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 343

Working Paper
A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model

This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TG-VAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and in the case of several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long-term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 402

Working Paper
A Bias-Corrected Method of Moments Approach to Estimation of Dynamic Short-T Panels

This paper contributes to the GMM literature by introducing the idea of self-instrumenting target variables instead of searching for instruments that are uncorrelated with the errors, in cases where the correlation between the target variables and the errors can be derived. The advantage of the proposed approach lies in the fact that, by construction, the instruments have maximum correlation with the target variables and the problem of weak instrument is thus avoided. The proposed approach can be applied to estimation of a variety of models such as spatial and dynamic panel data models. In ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 327

Working Paper
Mean Group Estimation in Presence of Weakly Cross-Correlated Estimators

This paper extends the mean group (MG) estimator for random coefficient panel data models by allowing the underlying individual estimators to be weakly cross-correlated. Weak cross-sectional dependence of the individual estimators can arise, for example, in panels with spatially correlated errors. We establish that the MG estimator is asymptotically correctly centered, and its asymptotic covariance matrix can be consistently estimated. The random coefficient specification allows for correct inference even when nothing is known about the weak cross-sectional dependence of the errors. This is ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 349

Working Paper
Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy

The global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances. This paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion. We explore three alternative econometric strategies: examining all models, selecting a few, and combining them all. Out of thousands (or indeed millions) of models a story emerges. The chance that current accounts were aligned with fundamentals prior to the financial crisis appears to be minimal.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 100

Journal Article
Impact of Chinese slowdown on U.S. no longer negligible

The impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades. Econometric modeling shows that the U.S. economy is more likely to directly and indirectly (through its trading partners) feel the impact of a negative shock to Chinese output.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 5 , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual Euro area countries since the Euro's creation?

This paper uncovers the response pattern to global shocks of euro area countries' real effective exchange rates before and after the start of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), a largely open ended question when the euro was created. We apply to that end a newly developed methodology based on high dimensional VAR theory. This approach features a dominant unit to a large set of over 60 countries' real effective exchange rates and is based on the comparison of two estimated systems: one before and one after EMU. ; We find strong evidence that the pattern of responses depends crucially on the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 102

Working Paper
COVID-19 Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing

This paper estimates time-varying COVID-19 reproduction numbers worldwide solely based on the number of reported infected cases, allowing for under-reporting. Estimation is based on a moment condition that can be derived from an agent-based stochastic network model of COVID-19 transmission. The outcomes in terms of the reproduction number and the trajectory of per-capita cases through the end of 2020 are very diverse. The reproduction number depends on the transmission rate and the proportion of susceptible population, or the herd immunity effect. Changes in the transmission rate depend on ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 407

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Jel Classification

C23 9 items

C13 6 items

C12 5 items

C33 4 items

C52 4 items

C55 4 items

show more (36)

FILTER BY Keywords

COVID-19 5 items

forecasting 3 items

International trade 2 items

SIR model 2 items

Time-varying parameters 2 items

epidemics 2 items

show more (64)

PREVIOUS / NEXT