Early Mandated Social Distancing Does Best to Control COVID–19 Spread
Voluntary social distancing and a lack of compliance with mandated polices have led to unnecessarily high infection rates and death tolls in a number of countries.
How the global perspective can help us identify structural shocks
This paper argues that global perspective can help us with the identification of structural shocks by utilizing the information on the signs of the responses of individual countries (cross section units). We demonstrate the main idea by means of Monte Carlo experiments and present an empirical application where we look at the effects of oil supply shocks on output and on global exchange rate constellation. Using a large-scale GVAR model of oil prices and the global economy, we find supply shocks tend to have a stronger impact on emerging economies' real output as compared with mature ...
Risk, uncertainty separately cloud global growth forecasting
Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty.
Impact of Chinese slowdown on U.S. no longer negligible
The impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades. Econometric modeling shows that the U.S. economy is more likely to directly and indirectly (through its trading partners) feel the impact of a negative shock to Chinese output.
Cheaper crude oil affects consumer prices unevenly
The recent crude oil price decline is reflected in lower pump prices for gasoline. Other consumer prices are also affected, but the impact and the speed of transmission vary considerably.
Economic shocks reverberate in world of interconnected trade ties
As the world economy slowly recovers from the Great Recession and global trade flows remain weak, net trade contributions to domestic growth become more critical.
Global and National Shocks Explain A Large Share of State Job Growth
Global and U.S. national shocks on average appear to equally explain more than half of the fluctuations in state employment growth, an important measure of assessing real economic activity. The overall assessment, however, conceals a wide variation among states.
Rising Public Debt to GDP Can Harm Economic Growth
The debt?growth relationship is complex, varying across countries and affected by global factors. While there is no simple universal threshold above which debt to GDP significantly depresses growth, high and rising public debt burdens slow growth in the long term, data from the past four decades indicate.
Global, National Business Cycles and Energy Explain Texas Metro Growth
A mix of global, national and state-specific shocks help drive employment fluctuations between U.S. states. Econometric modeling shows such differences among metropolitan areas also reflect a mix of shocks. Texas cities strongly tied to oil and gas activity appear more affected by energy-sector shocks than other metros in the state.
The euro and global turbulence: member countries gain stability
The pattern of adjustment of euroarea countries? external competitiveness to dollar and risk aversion shocks has become more similar since the euro?s creation.