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COVID-19, Oil Price Collapse, Dimming Outlook for Banks in 2020
Eleventh District banks face challenges from instability in the energy sector and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. While district banks finished 2019 on solid footing, and regulatory and monetary interventions will buffer some of the headwinds, we expect profitability, credit quality and bank capital to decline in 2020.
Eleventh District Banks Have Performed Well Despite Rising Funding Costs, Nonbank Competition
Profitability picked up for Eleventh District banks in 2018 despite rising funding costs and slowing loan growth. Overall asset quality strengthened, though room for further improvement may be limited. Changes in capital regulation could affect bank risk taking.
Banks Face New Challenges as Texas Rebounds from COVID-19 Shock
The banking industry faced significant challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, with profitability declining to levels not seen since the 2008–09 financial crisis. While strong economic growth during 2021 is expected as the economy reopens, some credit deterioration and losses are still possible as fiscal stimulus and national forbearance programs end.
Changing Economy Likely to Test Banks as Stimulus Ends, Growth Slows
Banks in the region and the U.S., which have benefited from pandemic-era fiscal stimulus, face downside risks arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ongoing COVID-19 shocks abroad and expectations of significant central bank tightening to address elevated inflation.
New office buildings rise on Texas skyline despite difficult market
Despite persistent remote work arrangements and high vacancies in existing office buildings, construction cranes erecting new office space continue to dot Texas skylines.