The changing housing market: a bang or a whimper?
The U.S. housing market has had an extraordinary 15-year run in terms of prices, sales of existing homes, and new construction, especially on the East and West Coasts. Beginning in the spring of 2006, however, the housing market began to turn distinctly downward. We know that 2005 was a good year and that 2006 has not been such a good year, and we see indications that 2007 could be tough. To help understand why the market has shifted from hot to, at a minimum, cool, this paper, which is the first in a series of NEPPC policy briefs on housing, recaps some of the factors that contributed to ...
School quality and Massachusetts enrollment shifts in the context of tax limitations
Like most states, Massachusetts underwent a large shift in public school enrollment between the 1980s and 1990s, requiring a number of sizable fiscal and educational adjustments by individual school districts. Between 1980 and 1989, the number of students in kindergarten through grade 12 fell 21 percent, from 1.04 million to 825,000. As children of baby boomers reached school age, the picture changed and enrollments grew more than 90,000 over the next seven years. These aggregate trends gloss over even more marked shifts at the local level. This ...
A decade of boom and bust in the prices of single-family homes: Boston and Los Angeles, 1983 to 1993
The 1980s and 1990s have been turbulent times in the U.S. market for single-family homes. For most of the previous two decades, housing prices across states and metropolitan areas moved together and increased slowly in real terms while regional differences generally remained small. The 1980s and 1990s, in contrast, have seen increased price volatility and sharp differences in price behavior across regions with substantial housing price booms in some regions and major price declines in others. ; These boom-bust cycles had serious consequences for regional economies and national mortgage ...
Geographic patterns of mortgage lending in Boston, 1982-1987
The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets
Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area
This paper analyzes the pattern of house price appreciation in the Boston area from 1982 to 1994. The empirical results are consistent with the predictions of a standard urban model in which towns have a fixed set of amenities. The evidence suggests that changes in the cross-sectional pattern of house prices are related to differences in manufacturing employment, demographics, new construction, proximity to the downtown, and to aggregate school enrollments. These findings support the view that town amenities are not easily replicated or quickly adaptable to shifts in demand, even within a ...
Chasing good schools in Massachusetts
How the commercial real estate boom undid the banks
The housing cycle in Eastern Massachusetts: variations among cities and towns
Numerous studies over the years have attempted to identify the impact of amenities on housing price levels within specific metropolitan areas. It is well know, for example, that local public goods, tax burdens, school quality, crime rates, and the like are capitalized into land values. This article divides the Eastern Massachusetts area into small groups of similar towns and examines the pattern of price changes across those groups during the boom, bust, and recovery periods. Since 1982, differences in appreciation rates across cities and towns have been particularly pronounces. The authors ...