Texas Economic Activity Suddenly Contracts in March; Outlook Worsens Due to COVID-19
The economic downturn in Texas has begun, recent data suggest.
Framing the future: tomorrow's border economy
Cyclical differences emerge in border city economies
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in ...
Do remittances boost economic development? Evidence from Mexican states
Remittances have been promoted as a development tool because they can raise incomes and reduce poverty rates in developing countries. Remittances may also promote development by providing funds that recipients can spend on education or health care or invest in entrepreneurial activities. From a macroeconomic perspective, remittances can boost aggregate demand and thereby GDP as well as spur economic growth. However, remittances may also have adverse macroeconomic impacts by increasing income inequality and reducing labor supply among recipients. We use state-level data from Mexico during ...
The impact of the maquiladora industry on U.S. border cities
For decades, the maquiladora industry has been a major economic engine along the U.S.?Mexico border. Since the 1970s, researchers have analyzed how the maquiladora industry affects cities along both sides of the border. Gordon Hanson (2001) produced the first comprehensive study on the impact of the maquiladoras on U.S. border cities, considering the impact of these in-bond plants on both employment and wages. His estimates became useful rules of thumb for the entire U.S.?Mexico border. These estimates have become dated, as Hanson's study covered the period from 1975 to 1997. The purpose of ...
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance
The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) are monthly surveys of service sector and retail firms in Texas conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TSSOS and TROS track the Texas private services sector, including general service businesses, retailers and wholesalers. The surveys provide invaluable information on regional economic conditions?information that Dallas Fed economists and the Bank president use in the formulation of monetary policy. This paper describes the survey?s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of ...
Industrial structure and economic complementarities in city pairs on the Texas-Mexico border
The U.S.?Mexico border provides a number of examples of pairs of neighboring cities, one in the U.S. and the other in Mexico. The advent of the North American Industrial Classification System provides a new opportunity to look at these cities using a common industrial classification system. Using U.S. data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis, and comparable information from the 1999 Mexican economic census, we were able to compare employment by industry sector in city pairs that are located along the Texas?Mexico border: El Paso?Juarez, Laredo?Nuevo Laredo, ...
Business cycle coordination along the Texas-Mexico border
In this paper we use a dynamic single-factor model originally due to Stock and Watson [18, 19] to measure the business cycle in four Texas border Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Mexico. We then measure the degree of economic integration between border cities, the US, Texas, and Mexican economies using correlation, spectral and cluster analysis. Results suggest border MSAs are significantly integrated with the broader economies and that major changes have occurred in these relationships since 1994, the year in which NAFTA was enacted and the time maquiladora industry began to ...
Maquilador downturn: structural change or cyclical factors?