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Author:Bryan, Michael F. 

Journal Article
Realignment in the U.S. motor vehicle industry

A review of the developments that have led to chronic excess capacity in the U.S. motor vehicle industry, and a consideration of the prospects facing this industry in the decade ahead.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation

An analysis concluding that inflation measures based on median price changes are a better indicator than measures based on mean price changes.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Journal Article
The curiously different inflation perspectives of men and women

That men and women occasionally see things differently is not a remarkable observation. But that the sexes could report vastly different perspectives on the rate at which prices are rising over a long period of time is astonishing. This Commentary describes the difference in inflation sentiment held by men and women ? a puzzle that may hold the key to interpreting survey-based data on household inflation expectations.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Working Paper
Testing near-rationality using detailed survey data

This paper considers the evidence of ?near-rationality,? as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000). Using detailed surveys of household inflation expectations for the United States and Sweden, we find that the data are generally unsupportive of the near-rationality hypothesis. However, we document that household inflation expectations tend to settle around discrete and largely fixed ?focal points,? suggesting that both U.S. and Swedish households gauge inflation prospects in rather broad, qualitative terms. Moreover, the combination of a low-inflation environment and an inflation ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0502

Journal Article
The outlook for inflation

A look at whether we can have an economic recovery without reaccelerating inflation. The authors consider past behavior of prices, wages, capacity utilization, and productivity growth in their analysis.
Economic Review , Issue Win , Pages 7-22

Journal Article
Midyear report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable

A summation of the May 20, 1994 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which participants offered their views on the current and prospective state of the economy and discussed the limitations of describing the U.S. business cycle.
Economic Commentary , Issue Aug

Journal Article
American automobile manufacturing: it's turning Japanese

A discussion of the movement of Japanese auto production facilities to the United States, with emphasis on conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District and on growth of the just-in-time inventory supply process.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Don't worry, we'll grow out of it: an analysis of demographics, consumer spending, and foreign debt

An analysis of the impact of the baby-boom generation's inrush into the work force on consumer spending, debt, and foreign investment, finding evidence that age demographics are a strong determinant of aggregate household consumption.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Forecast accuracy and monetary policy

An examination of GNP forecasts and their implications for monetary policy, showing that although such forecasts have lessened uncertainty about the economy's future course, the errors are still too large to justify basing monetary policy on the near-term GNP outlook alone.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Issues in the 1983 auto-sales outlook

An analysis of the changing auto market and of factors affecting sales ( such as consumer income, costs, sticker shock, and affordability), plus a discussion of expectations of 1983 sales.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar


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