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Working Paper
Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in southeast Asia
This paper analyzes exchange rate turmoil with a Markov Switching GARCH model. We distinguish between two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance: "ordinary" regime, characterized by low exchange rate changes and low volatility, and "turbulent" regime, characterized by high exchange rate movements and high volatility. We also allow the transition probabilities to vary over time as functions of economic and financial indicators. We find that real effective exchange rates, money supply relative to reserves, stock index returns, and bank stock index returns and volatility contain valuable information for identifying turbulence and ordinary periods.
AUTHORS: Scotti, Chiara; Mariano, Roberto S.; Brunetti, Celso; Tan, Augustine H. H.
DATE: 2007
Working Paper
Commodity index trading and hedging costs
Trading by commodity index traders (CITs) has become an important aspect of financial markets over the past 10 years. We develop an equilibrium model of trader behavior that relates uninformed CIT trading to futures prices. The model predicts that CIT trading reduces the cost of hedging. We test the model using a unique non-public dataset which precisely identifies trader positions. We find evidence, consistent with the model, that index traders have become an important supply of price risk insurance.
AUTHORS: Brunetti, Celso; Reiffen, David
DATE: 2011
Working Paper
Economic volatility and financial markets: the case of mortgage-backed securities
The volatility of aggregate economic activity in the United States decreased markedly in the mid eighties. The decrease involved several components of GDP and has been linked to a more stable economic environment, identified by smaller shocks and more effective policy, and a diverse set of innovations related to inventory management as well as financial markets. We document a negative relation between the volatility of GDP and some of its components and one such financial development: the emergence of mortgage-backed securities. We also document that this relationship changed sign, from negative to positive, in the early 2000's.
AUTHORS: Antinolfi, Gaetano; Brunetti, Celso
DATE: 2013
Working Paper
Bank Holdings and Systemic Risk
The recent financial crisis has focused attention on identifying and measuring systemic risk. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to estimate the portfolio composition of banks as function of daily interbank trades and stock returns. While banks? assets are reported to regulators and/or the public at relatively low frequencies (e.g. quarterly or annually), our approach estimates bank asset holdings at higher frequencies which allows us to derive precise estimates of (i) portfolio concentration within each bank?a measure of diversification?and (ii) common holdings across banks?a measure of market susceptibility to propagating shocks. We find evidence that systemic risk measures derived from our approach lead, in a forecasting sense, several commonly used systemic risk indicators.
AUTHORS: Harris, Jeffrey H.; Mankad, Shawn; Brunetti, Celso
DATE: 2018-09-04
Working Paper
Managing Counterparty Risk in OTC Markets
We study how banks manage their default risk to optimally negotiate quantities and prices of contracts in over-the-counter markets. We show that costly actions exerted by banks to reduce their default probabilities are inefficient. Negative externalities due to counterparty concentration may lead banks to reduce their default probabilities even below the social optimum. The model provides new implications which are supported by empirical evidence: (i) intermediation is done by low-risk banks with medium initial exposure; (ii) the risk-sharing capacity of the market is impaired, even when the trade size limit is not binding; and (iii) intermediaries play the fundamental role of diversifying the idiosyncratic risk in CDS contracts, besides increasing the risk-sharing capacity of the market.
AUTHORS: Brunetti, Celso; Frei, Christoph; Capponi, Agostino
DATE: 2017-08-15
Working Paper
Interconnectedness in the Interbank Market
We study the behavior of the interbank market before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. Leveraging recent advances in network analysis, we study two network structures, a correlation network based on publicly traded bank returns, and a physical network based on interbank lending transactions. While the two networks behave similarly pre-crisis, during the crisis the correlation network shows an increase in interconnectedness while the physical network highlights a marked decrease in interconnectedness. Moreover, these networks respond differently to monetary and macroeconomic shocks. Physical networks forecast liquidity problems while correlation networks forecast financial crises.
AUTHORS: Brunetti, Celso; Harris, Jeffrey H.; Mankad, Shawn; Michailidis, George
DATE: 2015-09-30