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Author:Brown, Jason 

Journal Article
Production of natural gas from shale in local economies: a resource blessing or curse?

Innovations in the energy sector, particularly the extraction of natural gas from shale and tight gas formations using horizontal drilling and "fracking," have helped increase U.S. reserves of natural gas to an estimated 70 years' worth of supply. Some theories suggest such a boom leads to a local resource "blessing" in employment and a positive spillover into the local economy while others suggest a boom leads to a resource "curse" for industries not related to the energy sector. Brown examines county-level labor market conditions in the central United States and finds a modest ...
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 1-29

Working Paper
Rising Market Concentration and the Decline of Food Price Shock Pass-Through to Core Inflation

Using a vector autoregression that allows for time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, we show that U.S. core inflation became 75 percent less responsive to shocks in food prices since the late 1970s. The decline in the pass-through of food price shocks to inflation is a result of a decline in both volatility and the persistence of food price changes in inflation. This decline in pass-through coincides with a period of increasing concentration in the food supply chain, especially among U.S. grocery retailers and distributors. We find that 60 percent of the variation in pass-through ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-2

Journal Article
U.S. electricity prices in the wake of growing natural gas production.

Main Street Economist , Issue 2 , Pages 1-8

Journal Article
COVID-19 Stuns U.S. and Tenth District Economies, but Both Show Signs of Stabilization

COVID-19 and attempts to slow its spread have led to a decline in economic activity unprecedented in both severity and speed. Although every part of the United States experienced dramatic decreases in activity, states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, with lower COVID-19 cases as a percentage of the population, have fared slightly better. More recently, national and regional measures of business and consumer activity have improved but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Effects of State Taxation on Investment: Evidence from the Oil Industry

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that firms do not in general respond equally to changes in prices and taxes in the setting of oil well drilling in the United States. Our key theoretical contribution is that in a multi-state model, a change in output price changes both the benefit and opportunity cost of drilling, whereas a change in a state tax rate only changes the benefit of drilling in that state. Thus, a firm responds more to a change in tax than a change in price. Our econometric results support this theoretical prediction. We find that a one dollar per barrel increase in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-7

Working Paper
How Centralized is U.S. Metropolitan Employment?

Centralized employment remains a benchmark stylization of metropolitan land use.To address its empirical relevance, we delineate "central employment zones" (CEZs)- central business districts together with nearby concentrated employment|for 183 metropolitan areas in 2000. To do so, we first subjectively classify which census tracts in a training sample of metros belong to their metro's CEZ and then use a learning algorithm to construct a function that predicts our judgment. {{p}} Applying this prediction function to the full cross section of metros estimates the probability we would judge ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-16

Working Paper
Asset Ownership, Windfalls, and Income: Evidence from Oil and Gas Royalties

How does local versus absentee ownership of natural resources?and their associated income?shape the relationship between extraction and local income? Theory and empirics on natural resources and the broader economy have focused heavily on labor markets, largely ignoring the economic implications of payments to resource owners. We study how local ownership of oil and gas rights shapes the local income effects of extraction. For the average U.S. county that experienced an increase in oil and gas production from 2000 to 2013, increased royalty income and its associated economic stimulus ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-12

Working Paper
Rural wealth creation and emerging energy industries: lease and royalty payments to farm households and businesses

New technologies for accessing energy resources, changes in global energy markets, and government policies have encouraged growth in the natural gas and wind industries in the 2000s. The growth has offered new opportunities for wealth creation in many rural areas. At a local level, households who own land or mineral rights can benefit from energy development through lease and royalty payments. Using nationally-representative data on U.S. farms from 2011, we assess the consumption, investment, and wealth implications of the $2.3 billion in lease and royalty payments that energy companies paid ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 13-07

Journal Article
The response of employment to changes in oil and gas exploration and drilling

Oil prices declined significantly during the summer of 2014, leading to a subsequent decline in energy exploration and drilling. By the end of April 2015, rig counts were down 49 percent. In the past, these declines have disproportionately affected the economies of oil- and gas-producing states, decreasing statewide employment and inducing ?regional recessions.?
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 57-81

Journal Article
The Widening Divide in Business Turnover between Large and Small Urban Areas

Business turnover?the rate at which new firms enter and old firms exit the economy?has been declining for at least 40 years in the United States. Declining business turnover is potentially problematic, as it may signal a drop in innovation and productivity growth as well as a lower share of economic activity at new businesses. As a result, the economic fortunes of metropolitan areas are likely to be intertwined with the rate of business turnover they experience. {{p}} As the U.S. economy continues to transition from producing goods to providing services, changes in business turnover are ...
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 5-25

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