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Author:Brinca, Pedro 

Working Paper
The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy
We argue that the fiscal multiplier of government purchases is increasing in the spending shock, in contrast to what is assumed in most of the literature. The fiscal multiplier is largest for large positive government spending shocks and smallest for large contractions in government spending. We empirically document this fact using aggregate U.S. data. We find that a neoclassical, life-cycle, incomplete markets model calibrated to match key features of the US economy can explain this empirical finding. The mechanism hinges on the relationship between fiscal shocks, their form of financing, and the response of labor supply across the wealth distribution. The model predicts that the aggregate labor supply elasticity is increasing in the size of the fiscal shock, and this holds regardless of whether shocks are deficit- or balanced-budget financed (albeit through different mechanisms). We find evidence of our mechanism in micro data for the US.
AUTHORS: Brinca, Pedro; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Ferreira, Miguel H.; Holter, Hans
DATE: 2019-05-22

Report
Accounting for Business Cycles
We elaborate on the business cycle accounting method proposed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007), clear up some misconceptions about the method, and then apply it to compare the Great Recession across OECD countries as well as to the recessions of the 1980s in these countries. We have four main findings. First, with the notable exception of the United States, Spain, and Ireland, the Great Recession was driven primarily by the efficiency wedge. Second, in the Great Recession, the labor wedge plays a dominant role only in the United States, and the investment wedge plays a dominant role in Ireland and Spain. Third, in the recessions of the 1980s the labor wedge played a dominant role only in Denmark and the United Kingdom. Finally, overall in the Great Recession the efficiency wedge played a much more important role and the investment wedge played a much less important role than they did in the recessions of the 1980s.
AUTHORS: Chari, V. V.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Brinca, Pedro; McGrattan, Ellen R.
DATE: 2016-06-28

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