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Author:Brayton, Flint 

Working Paper
A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States

FRB/US is a large-scale quarterly econometric model of the U.S. economy, developed to replace the MPS model. Most behavioral equations are based on specifications of optimizing behavior containing explicit expectations of firms, households, and financial markets. Although expectations are explicit, the empirical fits of the structural descriptions of macroeconomic behavior are comparable to those of reduced-form time series models. In most instances, tests do not reject overidentifying restrictions of rational expectations or the hypothesis of serially independent residuals. As modeled, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 96-42

Working Paper
What's happened to the Phillips curve?

The simultaneous occurrence in the second half of the 1990s of low and falling price inflation and low unemployment appears to be at odds with the properties of a standard Phillips curve. We find this result in a model in which inflation depends on the unemployment rate, past inflation, and conventional measures of price supply shocks. We show that, in such a model, long lags of past inflation are preferred to short lags, and that with long lags, the NAIRU is estimated precisely but is unstable in the 1990s. Two alternative modifications to the standard Phillips curve restore stability. One ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-49

Conference Paper
Nominal income targeting with the monetary base as instrument: an evaluation of McCallum's rule

Proceedings , Paper 1, pt. 2

Discussion Paper
The macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the Economic Recovery Tax Act : some simulation results

Staff Studies , Paper 148

Working Paper
Two practical algorithms for solving rational expectations models

This paper describes the E-Newton and E-QNewton algorithms for solving rational expectations (RE) models. Both algorithms treat a model's RE terms as exogenous variables whose values are iteratively updated until they (hopefully) satisfy the RE requirement. In E-Newton, the updates are based on Newton's method; E-QNewton uses an efficient form of Broyden's quasi-Newton method. The paper shows that the algorithms are reliable, fast enough for practical use on a mid-range PC, and simple enough that their implementation does not require highly specialized software. The evaluation of the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-44

Conference Paper
The behavior of monetary sectors and monetary policy: evidence from multicountry models

Proceedings

Journal Article
Structure and uses of the MPS quarterly econometric model of the United States

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Feb

Journal Article
The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model

In the past year, the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System began using a new macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy referred to as the FRB/US model. This system of mathematical equations, describing interactions among economic measures such as inflation, interest rates, and gross domestic product, is one of the tools used in economic forecasting and the analysis of macroeconomic policy issues at the Board. The FRB/US model replaces the MPS model, which, with periodic revisions, had been used at the Federal Reserve Board since the early 1970s. A key feature of the new ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 83 , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Here's looking at you: modelling and policy use of auction price expectations

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 126

Working Paper
Interest rate policies for price stability

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 93-22

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