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Newsletter
Detecting early signs of financial instability
The authors analyze the usefulness of a new measure of nonfinancial leverage as an early warning indicator for financial instability and its consequences for economic growth.
AUTHORS: Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott
DATE: 2012-12
Newsletter
A different way to review the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
This article analyzes the recent sources of strength and weakness in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), using a new measure that is often a leading indicator of the index?s movements.
AUTHORS: Brave, Scott; Lichtenstein, Max
DATE: 2012-05
Newsletter
Economic trends and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
This article discusses an experimental methodology for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index?a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The goal is to see how well it accounts for recent structural changes in the U.S. economy.
AUTHORS: Brave, Scott
DATE: 2008-05
Newsletter
Predicting gross state product growth with the Chicago Fed's Midwest Economy Index
This article explains how the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago?s Midwest Economy Index (MEI) can be used to produce quarterly estimates of the annual gross state product (GSP) growth of each state in the Seventh Federal Reserve District.
AUTHORS: Brave, Scott; Wang, Norman
DATE: 2011-12
Newsletter
Using the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book to Track Economic Activity
This article provides the public a first look at a new set of indexes constructed from the Chicago Fed?s Beige Book survey, and describes their ability to track economic activity.
AUTHORS: Brave, Scott; Walstrum, Thomas
DATE: 2014-11
Newsletter
Chicago Fed National Activity Index turns ten - analyzing its first decade of performance
This article discusses how the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has performed as a ?real-time? indicator of economic activity and related inflationary pressure.
AUTHORS: Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott
DATE: 2010-04
Newsletter
How does labor adjustment in this recession compare with the past?
The authors examine how firms are adjusting their work force during the current recession in comparison with other recessions over the past 40 years.
AUTHORS: Aaronson, Daniel; Brave, Scott
DATE: 2009-06
Newsletter
Is There Still Slack in the Labor Market?
Based on recent population and labor force projections, we estimate that payroll employment remained about one million jobs below its trend as of April 2016. Given an average pace of roughly 200,000 jobs added per month so far this year, this implies that labor market slack is likely to persist until late 2016. Considerable uncertainty surrounds this estimate, however, especially with respect to labor force trends. An alternative calculation that assumes a steeper decline in trend labor force participation driven by shifting demographics suggests that slack could persist for up to an additional year.
AUTHORS: Aaronson, Daniel; Brave, Scott; Kelley, David
DATE: 2016
Newsletter
Estimating the trend rate of economic growth using the CFNAI
This article shows how a new methodology for constructing the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) can be used to identify both the cyclical (medium-run) and trend (long-run) components of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
AUTHORS: Brave, Scott; Butters, R. Andrew
DATE: 2013-06
Newsletter
Using Private Sector “Big Data” as an Economic Indicator: The Case of Construction Spending
This Chicago Fed Letter provides an account of our collaboration with the construction contracts and payment management firm Textura to use their data to evaluate the state of U.S. construction spending. We show that new construction projects budgeted by Textura?s clients are a leading indicator for total U.S. construction spending and provide information beyond other already publicly available data.
AUTHORS: Brave, Scott; Aaronson, Daniel
DATE: 2016