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Discussion Paper
States Are Recovering Lost Jobs at Surprisingly Similar Rates
The U.S. economy lost more than 8 million jobs between January 2008 and February 2010. In contrast with earlier recessions, employment declines were seen across almost all states. The extent varied: In this recession, states with big housing busts generally saw steeper job losses, especially in construction, while some states also had severe job losses driven by manufacturing declines. One feature of this employment recovery is that it?s actually been quite uniform across states?and much more uniform than in earlier recoveries. With few exceptions, states appear to be marching in lockstep.
Journal Article
Can New York City bank on Wall Street?
The securities industry is more important than ever to the New York City economy, and a protracted downturn in the industry's employment could seriously hurt the overall job picture. Increased stability in other New York City industries, however, could help soften the economic effects of such a downturn.
Discussion Paper
Will Silicon Alley Be the Next Silicon Valley?
Discussion Paper
Finally, Some Signs of Improvement in the Regional Economy
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June business surveys show some signs of improvement in the regional economy. Following two months of unprecedented decline due to the coronavirus pandemic, indicators of business activity point to a slower pace of contraction in the service sector and signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Even more encouraging, as the regional economy has begun to reopen, many businesses have started to recall workers who were laid off or put on furlough since the start of the pandemic. Some have even hired new workers. Moreover, businesses expect to recall ...
Discussion Paper
How Is Online Shopping Affecting Retail Employment?
It’s been said that if you want to know how the economy is doing, look at how many people are carrying shopping bags. That adage may not hold so well today. The rise of the internet and e-commerce over the past two decades has chipped away at the market share of “brick and mortar” retailers. But it’s only been in the past few years that this shift in market share has had a noteworthy effect on retail employment. In this post, we focus on national and local employment trends in two categories of retail—department stores and nonstore retailers—and try to assess how the surge in ...
Journal Article
Dynamics of the Second District economy
Consumers and analysts remain wary about the economic prospects of the Second District. But is caution here simply becoming habit? True, there are some weak spots, but strong performance in the southern tier is pointing to a brighter economic future for the district.
Journal Article
Evolution of commuting patterns in the New York City metro area
Has the migration of jobs to the suburbs changed the commuting patterns in the New York City metro area? An analysis of current commuting trends suggests that Manhattan remains the region's undisputed employment center and that workers are actually traveling farther to their jobs. Two factors appear to account for the longer commutes: the dispersion of people and jobs and a greater tolerance for long-distance travel among employers and employees.
Discussion Paper
How Did New York City’s Economy Weather the Pandemic?
When COVID-19 first struck the U.S. in early 2020, New York City was the epicenter of the pandemic. By early April, there was an unthinkable scale of suffering, with massive hospitalizations and roughly 800 fatalities per day, accounting for nearly half of the nationwide total. The rapid spread was facilitated by the city’s extraordinarily high population density and widespread use of mass transit. What followed was a quick and massive shutdown of restaurants, retail stores, personal services, offices, and more. And the shutdowns, of course, led to widespread job losses. Between February ...
Discussion Paper
Just Released: Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy
Every March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases benchmark revisions of state and local payroll employment for the preceding two years. While employment data are released monthly for all 50 states and many metropolitan areas, the monthly figures are estimated based on a sample of firms. The annual revisions are based on an almost complete count of workers (now available up through mid-2014) from the records of the unemployment insurance system and re-estimated data for the remainder of the year. In this post, we briefly summarize the mixed but mostly stronger performance in the region in ...
Journal Article
Tourism and New York City's economy
In New York City, tourism has made impressive gains in recent years, particularly in the foreign visitor segment. While not large enough to propel the city's economy, this long-term growth industry is critical to maintaining the local export base and providing jobs to low-skilled workers.