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Bourbon and Whiskey Distillers Face Rosy Tourism, Vexing Tariffs
U.S. distillers face retaliatory tariffs abroad, but tourism related to whiskey remains a bright spot.
FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications
We construct a real-time dataset (FRED-SD) with vintage data for the U.S. states that can be used to forecast both state-level and national-level variables. Our dataset includes approximately 28 variables per state, including labor market, production, and housing variables. We conduct two sets of real-time forecasting exercises. The first forecasts state-level labor-market variables using five different models and different levels of industrially-disaggregated data. The second forecasts a national-level variable exploiting the cross-section of state data. The state-forecasting experiments ...
Social Distancing, but Mostly during the Workweek?
Analyzing a new index from the Dallas Fed shows that a key component of social distancing—staying at home—seems to be happening nationally during the week but not as much on the weekends.
Hospital Capacity amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
Asha Bharadwaj, Kathryn Bokun, Charles S. GasconMost counties haven't reached hospital bed capacity during COVID-19 peaks through June 30. However, about a quarter of counties are at risk of overcapacity if a future surge occurs.
The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0
The St. Louis Fed's financial stress index has been recalibrated to better capture evolving stresses in financial markets.
Key Elements of the Fed’s New Monetary Policy Strategy
In August, the Fed announced completion of its framework review that resulted in a new monetary policy strategy. How does the new strategy differ from the previous one?
Challenges to the Fed’s New Monetary Policy Strategy
This post discusses some potential challenges the FOMC may face in pursuing a flexible average inflation targeting approach.
What Is Yield Curve Control?
Australia and Japan have recent experience in controlling the yield curve as a tool to conduct monetary policy. The U.S. did so in the 1940s and early 1950s.