Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market
There are two main creditors in commercial real estate: arm?s-length investors and banks. We model commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as the less informed source of credit. In equilibrium, these investors fund properties with a low probability of distress and banks fund properties that may require renegotiation. We test the model using the 2007-2009 collapse of the CMBS market as a natural experiment, when banks funded both collateral types. Our results show that properties likely to have been securitized were less likely to default or be renegotiated, consistent with the model. ...
Differences across originators in CMBS loan underwriting
Differences in the organizational structure of CMBS loan originators may reflect differences in the incentives they face for underwriting risky loans. We treat an originator's type--that is, commercial bank, investment bank, insurance company, finance company, conduit lender, or foreign-owned entity--as a proxy for incentives related to warehousing risk, balance sheet lending, and regulatory constraints. After controlling for observable credit characteristics of over 30,000 loans securitized into CMBS after 1999, we find considerable differences in loan performance across originator types. ...
Shifting Ground: The Changing Landscape in Financial Markets and Technology
The Chicago Fed?s Supervision and Regulation Department and DePaul University?s Center for Financial Services held their ninth annual risk conference on March 29?30, 2016. The conference brought together financial industry professionals, academics, and regulators to discuss the challenges and opportunities posed by the uncertain outlooks for financial markets and geopolitical landscapes across the globe, as well as by the array of innovations from financial technology, or ?fintech,? firms.
The effect of TARP on bank risk-taking
One of the largest responses of the U.S. government to the recent financial crisis was the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). TARP was originally intended to stabilize the financial sector through the increased capitalization of banks. However, recipients of TARP funds were then encouraged to make additional loans despite increased borrower risk. In this paper, we consider the effect of the TARP capital injections on bank risk taking by analyzing the risk ratings of banks? commercial loan originations during the crisis. The results indicate that, relative to non-TARP banks, the risk of ...
Deepening the Foundations of Risk Management
The ongoing recovery from the Great Recession has been accompanied by changes in the types of risks that financial institutions face and the ways in which they manage them. Even as improving labor markets and modest economic growth have strengthened balance sheets and stabilized most businesses, financial services firms remain under considerable pressure. In this context, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and DePaul University hosted their eighth annual risk conference on March 31?April 1, 2015.
Promise and Peril: Managing the Uncertainty of Rapid Innovation and a Changing Economy
The Chicago Fed?s Supervision and Regulation Department and DePaul University?s Center for Financial Services held their tenth annual risk conference on March 29?30, 2017. The conference brought together financial industry professionals, academics, and regulators to discuss the rapid pace of technological innovation in financial services, as well as the uncertainty of the changing economy through the lens of risk management.
How the credit channel works: differentiating the bank lending channel and the balance sheet channel
The credit channel of monetary policy transmission operates through changes in lending. To examine this channel, we explore how movements in the real federal funds rate affect bank lending. Using data on individual loans from the Survey of Terms of Bank Lending, we are able to differentiate two ways the credit channel can work: by affecting overall bank lending (the bank lending channel) and by affecting the allocation of loans (the balance sheet channel). We find evidence consistent with the operation of both internal credit channels. During periods of tight monetary policy, banks adjust ...
The bank lending channel of monetary policy and its effect on mortgage lending
The bank lending channel of monetary policy suggests that banks play a special role in the transmission of monetary policy. We look for this special role by examining the business strategies of banks as it relates to mortgage funding and mortgage lending. "Traditional banks" have a large supply of excess core deposits and specialize in information-intensive lending to borrowers (which is proxied here using mortgage lending in subprime communities), whereas "market-based banks" are funded with managed liabilities and mainly lend to relatively easy-to-evaluate borrowers. We predict that ...
The cross-market spillover of economic shocks through multi-market banks
This paper investigates the mortgage lending of banks operating in multiple U.S. metropolitan areas during the housing market collapse of 2007-2009. Some metro areas in the U.S. suffered much greater mortgage defaults than others. We use this regional variation to identify whether high mortgage delinquencies in some markets affected multi-market banks' mortgage lending in other markets. Our results show that multi-market banks reduced local mortgage lending in response to delinquencies in other markets, consistent with the view that local economic shocks can be transmitted to other regions ...
Bank core deposits and the mitigation of monetary policy
We consider the business strategy of some banks that provide relationship loans (where they have loan origination and monitoring advantages relative to capital markets) with core deposit funding (where they can pass along the benefit of a sticky price on deposits). These "traditional banks" tend to lend out less than the deposits they take in, so they have a "buffer stock" of core deposits. This buffer stock of core deposits can be used to mitigate the full effect of tighter monetary policy on their bank-dependent borrowers. In this manner, the business strategy of "traditional banks" ...