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Working Paper
Bubbly Recessions
We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can result in excessive investment booms that precede inefficient busts. The collapse of a large bubble can push the economy into a "secular stagnation" equilibrium, where the zero lower bound and the nominal wage rigidity constraint bind, leading to a persistent and inefficient recession. We evaluate a ...
Working Paper
California Wildfires, Property Damage, and Mortgage Repayment
This paper examines wildfires’ impact on mortgage repayment using novel data that combines property-level damages and mortgage performance data. We find that 90-day delinquencies were 4 percentage points higher and prepayments were 16 percentage points higher for properties that were damaged by wildfires compared to properties 1 to 2 miles outside of the wildfire, which suggests higher risks to mortgage markets than found in previous studies. We find no significant changes in delinquency or prepayment for undamaged properties inside a wildfire boundary. Prepayments are not driven by ...
Working Paper
Flood Underinsurance
Using data on expected flood damage and National Flood Insurance Program policies, we estimate annual flood risk protection gaps and underinsurance among single-family residences in the contiguous United States. Annually, 70 percent ($17.1 billion) of total flood losses would be uninsured. Underinsurance, defined as protection gaps among properties with positive flood risk and incentives to purchase full flood insurance coverage, totals $15.7 billion annually. Eighty percent of at-risk households are underinsured, and average underinsurance is $7,208 per year. Underinsurance persists both ...