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Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk
This paper studies asset pricing in a setting in which idiosyncratic risk in human capital is not fully insurable. Firms use long-term contracts to provide insurance to workers, but neither side can commit to these contracts; furthermore, worker-firm relationships have endogenous durations owing to costly and unobservable effort. Uninsured tail risk in labor earnings arises as a part of an optimal risk-sharing scheme. In the general equilibrium, exposure to the resulting tail risk generates higher risk premia, more volatile returns, and variations in expected returns across firms. Model outcomes are consistent with the cyclicality of factor shares in the aggregate, and the heterogeneity in exposures to idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks in the cross section.
AUTHORS: Ai, Hengjie; Bhandari, Anmol
Sweat Equity in U.S. Private Business
This paper uses theory disciplined by U.S. national accounts and business census data to measure private business sweat equity, which is the value of time to build customer bases, client lists, and other intangible assets. We estimate an aggregate sweat equity value of 0.65 times GDP, with little cross-sectional dispersion in valuations when compared to business net incomes and large cross-sectional dispersion in rates of return. Our estimate of sweat equity is close to the estimate of marketable fixed assets used in production by private businesses, implying a high ratio of intangible to total assets. We use the model to evaluate the impact of greater tax compliance of private businesses and lower tax rates on the net income of both privately held and publicly traded businesses.
AUTHORS: Bhandari, Anmol; McGrattan, Ellen R.
Data Appendix: What Do Survey Data Tell Us about U.S. Businesses?
In this appendix, we provide details on the data sources and construction of variables for our analysis in "What Do Survey Data Tell Us about U.S. Businesses?" We also include the auxiliary tables and figures omitted from the main text.
AUTHORS: Bhandari, Anmol; McGrattan, Ellen R.; Birinci, Serdar
What Do Survey Data Tell Us about U.S. Businesses?
This paper examines the reliability of survey data for research on pass-through businesses activities. Passthrough businesses account for over half of all net income to businesses in the United States and most of the rise in top income shares. We examine all surveys that ask questions about these businesses and compare outcomes across surveys and with aggregated administrative data. We document large inconsistencies in business incomes, receipts, and number of returns. We highlight problems due to non-representative samples and measurement errors. Non-representativeness is reflected in undersampling of businesses, especially in categories of owners with low total incomes. Measurement errors arise because respondents do not refer to relevant documents when answering survey questions and also because some questions are framed in a manner that is confusing to respondents. Finally, we discuss measurement issues for statistics of interest, such as returns and valuations of ongoing private businesses, that are inherently latent and cannot be recovered using either survey or administrative data.
AUTHORS: McGrattan, Ellen R.; See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Bhandari, Anmol
Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models
This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in household beliefs have quantitatively large effects on macroeconomic aggregates. The departures are formalized using model-consistent notions of pessimism and optimism and are disciplined by data on household forecasts. The role of subjective beliefs is quantified in a business cycle model with goods and labor market frictions. Consistent with the survey evidence, an increase in pessimism generates upward biases in unemployment and inflation forecasts and lowers economic activity. The underlying belief distortions reduce aggregate demand and propagate through frictional goods and labor markets. As a by-product of the analysis, solution techniques that preserve the effects of time-varying belief distortions in the class of linear solutions are developed.
AUTHORS: Bhandari, Anmol; Borovicka, Jaroslav; Ho, Paul