Journal Article
On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts
Bennett, Julie; Owyang, Michael T. (2022)
Inflation expectations constitute important components of macroeconomic models and monetary policy rules. We investigate the relative performance of consumer, professional, market-based, and model-based inflation forecasts. Consistent with the previous literature, professional forecasts most accurately predict one-year-ahead year-over-year inflation. Both consumers and professionals overestimate inflation over their respective sample periods. Market-based forecasts as measured by the swap market breakeven inflation rates significantly overestimate actual inflation; Treasury ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 2 , Pages 131-148

More Households Face Food Scarcity during COVID-19
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2020-06-18)
More U.S. households are reporting that they sometimes or often do not have enough food, according to a new Census survey.
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Wage Bills of COVID-19
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2020-04-14)
The largest potential wage loss comes from the health care and social assistance industry.
Economic Synopses , Issue 18

Journal Article
Same Target, Different Economies: A Cross-Country Analysis of Inflation
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2020-03-05)
Though some countries adopt a common inflation target, nations often have different patterns of inflation.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 1

Journal Article
The Large Gap in Stock Market Participation Between Black and White Households
Bennett, Julie; Chien, YiLi (2022-03-28)
White households participate in the stock market far more than Black households, contributing to the large wealth gap between them.
Economic Synopses , Issue 7 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics
Bennett, Julie; Owyang, Michael T.; Vermann, E. Katarina (2021-07-01)
A large literature has argued that gasoline prices respond more rapidly to increases in oil prices than to decreases in oil prices. Moreover, some of this literature has found heterogeneous asymmetry in gas price responses across cities. Here, we reconsider the causes of heterogeneous asymmetric pass-through. Consistent with the previous literature, we find heterogeneity in the magnitudes of asymmetric pass-through across cities. We also find a large number of cities that exhibit no asymmetries. We then examine whether heterogeneous asymmetry results from city-level differences in (i) the ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 3 , Pages 289-314

Journal Article
State Government Expenditures by Party Affiliation
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2021-05-05)
While political divisions have widened considerably in the U.S., dominant political leanings do not appear to correlate with state government expenditures.
The Regional Economist

What Do Financial Markets Say about Future Inflation?
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2022-06-23)
Though U.S. inflation has been unexpectedly high in the past year, inflation swap data indicate that longer-term inflation expectations remain relatively steady.
On the Economy

What Drives Changes in Inflation?
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2021-05-27)
Examining the inflationary trends of key components of the PCE price index can help provide insight into recent movements in consumer prices.
On the Economy

COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
Shell, Hannah; Owyang, Michael T.; Bennett, Julie (2020-03-20)
Professional forecasts abound, but what does the general public think will happen with the economy?
On the Economy