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Author:Bayard, Kimberly 

Working Paper
Early-Stage Business Formation : An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers
This paper reports on the development and analysis of a newly constructed dataset on the early stages of business formation. The data are based on applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) submitted in the United States, known as IRS Form SS-4 filings. The goal of the research is to develop high-frequency indicators of business formation at the national, state, and local levels. The analysis indicates that EIN applications provide forward-looking and very timely information on business formation. The signal of business formation provided by counts of applications is improved by using the characteristics of the applications to model the likelihood that applicants become employer businesses. The results also suggest that EIN applications are related to economic activity at the local level. For example, application activity is higher in counties that experienced higher employment growth since the end of the Great Recession, and application counts grew more rapidly in counties engaged in shale oil and gas extraction. Finally, the paper provides a description of new public use dataset, the ?Business Formation Statistics (BFS),? that contains new data series on business applications and formation. The initial release of the BFS shows that the number of business applications in the 3rd quarter of 2017 that have relatively high likelihood of becoming job creators is still far below pre-Great Recession levels.
AUTHORS: Bayard, Kimberly; Dinlersoz, Emin M.; Dunne, Timothy; Haltiwanger, John; Miranda, Javier; Stevens, John J.
DATE: 2018-03-05

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2008 annual revision
On March 28, 2008, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Although the revision affected the data from January 1972 through February 2008, most of the changes were for the period beginning in 2003. Relative to earlier estimates, measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, IP is now reported to have increased more slowly in 2006, but changes to output gains in other years since 2003 were more modest. The period from 2003 through 2007 was marked by a steady, moderate rise in industrial output; on average, production increased 2.2 percent per year, and the annual rates of change ranged from 1.5 percent to 3.1 percent.
AUTHORS: Gilbert, Charles; Bayard, Kimberly
DATE: 2008-08

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2003 annual revision
In late 2003, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its measures of industrial, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to September 2003. The changes are generally small and principally affect data from 2000 to the present. ; Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, industrial output is now reported to have increased at a slower rate in 2000 and to have contracted a bit more slowly in 2001 than reported earlier. The changes to total industrial production in other years are slight. The revision still places the most recent peak in total IP in June 2000 and the corresponding trough in December 2001. The 6-1/4 percent peak-to-trough decline in output is about 1/2 percentage point less than the previous estimate. After the trough, the total index showed gains in the first half of 2002, only to trend down again until mid-2003 and then to head up. ; The revised measures of overall capacity are only minimally different from earlier estimates. Capacity expanded rapidly during the second half of the 1990s and slowed considerably since then. The rate of industrial capacity utilization (the ratio of production to capacity) remained at a low level in the third quarter of 2003--the last full quarter of data--and was unchanged by the revision. At 74.6 percent, the operating rate is 4 percentage points below the trough of the 1990-91 recession and 6.7 percentage points below its 1972-2002 average.
AUTHORS: Bayard, Kimberly; Morin, Norman J.
DATE: 2004-01

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2004 annual revision
In late 2004, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to November 2004. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2004, industrial output is reported to have increased a little less than shown previously. Production expanded more slowly in 2000 than earlier estimates indicated, whereas the contraction in 2001 was a little less steep. The rise in output in 2002 was slightly stronger than reported earlier. ; Although the level of IP was a bit lower in the third quarter of 2004 than previously reported, the rate of industrial capacity utilization--the ratio of production to capacity--was revised upward. At 78.2 percent, the utilization rate for total industry is 0.9 percentage point higher than previously reported but still 2.9 percentage points below its 1972-2003 average. ; The revision indicated that industrial capacity expanded at a slower rate in 2002 and 2004 than estimated previously. Capacity is reported to have declined a bit in 2003; previously, a small increase had been reported. The current figures for capacity in 2000 and 2001 indicate a slightly stronger rate of increase than the earlier estimates did.
AUTHORS: Gilbert, Charles; Bayard, Kimberly
DATE: 2005-01

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2005 annual revision
On November 7, 2005, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 through September 2005. For this period, both the levels and the rates of change were revised. For years before 1972, the levels, but not the rates of change, were also revised. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Besides the revisions to the monthly data for IP and capacity utilization starting in 1972, the comparison base year for all production and capacity indexes was changed: The indexes are now expressed as percentages of output in 2002 instead of 1997. The rebasing affects all series from their start dates: 1919 for total IP and manufacturing IP, 1948 for manufacturing capacity, and 1967 for total industrial capacity.
AUTHORS: Bayard, Kimberly; Gilbert, Charles
DATE: 2006-03

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