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Author:Banternghansa, Chanont 

Journal Article
Has the recent real estate bubble biased the output gap?
We offer a word of caution to policymakers: Policies based on point estimates of the output gap may not rest on solid ground.
AUTHORS: Banternghansa, Chanont; Peralta-Alva, Adrian
DATE: 2009

Journal Article
The U.S. financial sector's value added: trends now and then
The U.S. financial growth between 1995 and 2006 certainly translated into record-high shareholder returns. Labor compensation returns were also dramatically high at the onset of the current crisis.
AUTHORS: Peralta-Alva, Adrian; Banternghansa, Chanont
DATE: 2009

Newsletter
Executive compensation and market risks
Some U.S. taxpayers were angry and felt betrayed when financial company executives received large bonuses in the midst of the 2008-09 financial crisis. These executives headed some of the same firms whose risky practices contributed to the crisis?and then later received billions of dollars in government bailouts. Who makes the changes in executive compensation policies and regulations to avoid such risks in the future? Read the February 2010 Newsletter for answers and interesting insights.
AUTHORS: Banternghansa, Chanont
DATE: 2010

Journal Article
Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED
This paper presents empirical evidence on the efficacy of forecast averaging using the ALFRED (ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Data) real-time database. We consider averages over a variety of bivariate vector autoregressive models. These models are distinguished from one another based on at least one of the following factors: (i) the choice of variables used as predictors, (ii) the number of lags, (iii) use of all available data or only data after the Great Moderation, (iv) the observation window used to estimate the model parameters and construct averaging weights, and (v) for the forecast horizons greater than one, the use of either iterated multistep or direct multistep methods. A variety of averaging methods are considered. The results indicate that the benefits of model averaging relative to Bayesian information criterion-based model selection are highly dependent on the class of models averaged The authors provide a novel decomposition of the forecast improvements that allows determination of the most (and least) helpful types of averaging methods and models averaged across.
AUTHORS: McCracken, Michael W.; Banternghansa, Chanont
DATE: 2011

Working Paper
Toxic exposure in America: estimating fetal and infant health outcomes
We examine the effect of toxic exposure on U.S. infant and fetal mortality rates between 1989 and 2002 from toxic pollution released by facilities reporting to the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Unlike previous studies, we control for toxic pollution from mobile sources and from non-TRI reporting facilities. We find significant adverse effects of TRI exposure on infant mortality. There is evidence that health effects vary across media: air and water having a larger impact than land pollution. And, within air, we find that releases of carcinogens are particularly problematic for infant health outcomes. We estimate that the average county-level decreases in TRI concentrations between 1988 and 2002 saved in excess of 13,800 infant lives.
AUTHORS: Agarwal, Nikhil; Banternghansa, Chanont; Bui, Linda T.M.
DATE: 2009

Working Paper
Forecast disagreement among FOMC members
This paper presents empirical evidence on the disagreement among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasts. In contrast to earlier studies that analyze the range of FOMC forecasts available in the Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, we analyze the forecasts made by each individual member of the FOMC from 1992 to 1998. This newly available dataset, while rich in detail, is short in duration. Even so, we are able to identify a handful of patterns in the forecasts related to i) forecast horizon; ii) whether the individual is a Federal Reserve Bank president, governor, and/or Vice Chairman; and iii) whether individual is a voting member of the FOMC. Additional comparisons are made between forecasts made by the FOMC and the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
AUTHORS: Banternghansa, Chanont; McCracken, Michael W.
DATE: 2009

Working Paper
Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED
This paper presents empirical evidence on the efficacy of forecast averaging using the ALFRED real-time database. We consider averages taken over a variety of different bivariate VAR models that are distinguished from one another based upon at least one of the following: which variables are used as predictors, the number of lags, using all available data or data after the Great Moderation, the observation window used to estimate the model parameters and construct averaging weights, and for forecast horizons greater than one, whether or not iterated- or direct-multistep methods are used. A variety of averaging methods are considered. Our results indicate that the benefits to model averaging relative to BIC-based model selection are highly dependent upon the class of models being averaged over. We provide a novel decomposition of the forecast improvements that allows us to determine which types of averaging methods and models were most (and least) useful in the averaging process.
AUTHORS: Banternghansa, Chanont; McCracken, Michael W.
DATE: 2010

Journal Article
The European debt crisis and U.S. economic growth
The recent strengthening of the correlations between U.S. GDP growth and that of Mexico, Canada, and Euro-19 validates further consideration of the performance of U.S. trade partners for growth.
AUTHORS: Banternghansa, Chanont; Peralta-Alva, Adrian
DATE: 2010

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