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Author:Azariadis, Costas 

Journal Article
Monetary policy as equilibrium selection

Can monetary policy guide expectations toward desirable outcomes when equilibrium and welfare are sensitive to alternative, commonly held rational beliefs? This paper studies this question in an exchange economy with endogenous debt limits in which dynamic complementarities between dated debt limits support two Pareto-ranked steady states: a suboptimal, locally stable autarkic state and a constrained optimal, locally unstable trading state. The authors identify feedback policies that reverse the stability properties of the two steady states and ensure rapid convergence to the constrained ...
Review , Volume 89 , Issue Jul , Pages 331-342

Speech
The optimal inflation target in an economy with limited enforcement

Presented at New Perspectives on Monetary Policy Design. Sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the Centre De Recerca en Economia Internacional. Barcelona, Spain.
Speech , Paper 167

Working Paper
Endogenous credit limits with small default costs

We analyze an exchange economy of unsecured credit where borrowers have the option to declare bankruptcy in which case they are temporarily excluded from financial markets. Endogenous credit limits are imposed that are just tight enough to prevent default. Economies with temporary exclusion differ from their permanent exclusion counterparts in two important properties. If households are extremely patient, then the first?best allocation is an equilibrium in the latter economies but not necessarily in the former. In addition, temporary exclusion permits multiple stationary equilibria, with both ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-048

Working Paper
Capital misallocation and aggregate factor productivity

We propose a sectoral?shift theory of aggregate factor productivity for a class of economies with AK technologies, limited loan enforcement, and a constant production possibilities frontier. Both the growth rate and TFP respond to random and persistent endogenous fluctuations in the sectoral distribution of physical capital which, in turn, responds to reversible exogenous shifts in relative sector productivities. Surplus capital from less productive sectors is lent to more productive ones in the form of secured collateral loans, as in Kiyotaki?Moore (1997), and also as unsecured reputational ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-046

Report
Complex eigenvalues and trend-reverting fluctuations

Autoregressions of quarterly or annual aggregate time series provide evidence of trend-reverting output growth and of short-term dynamic adjustment that appears to be governed by complex eigenvalues. This finding is at odds with the predictions of reasonably parameterized, convex one-sector growth models, most of which have positive real characteristic roots. We study a class of one-sector economies, overlapping generations with finite life spans of L greater than or equal to 3, in which aggregate saving depends nontrivially on the distribution of wealth among cohorts. If consumption goods ...
Staff Report , Paper 255

Working Paper
Earnings and wealth inequality and income taxation: quantifying the tradeoffs of switching to a proportional income tax in the U.S.

This paper quantifies the steady-state aggregate, distributional, and mobility effects of switching the U.S. to a proportional income tax system.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9814

Conference Paper
Discretion, rules and volatility

Proceedings , Volume 78 , Issue May , Pages 65-74

Speech
The optimal inflation target in an economy with limited enforcement

Presented at Indiana University.
Speech , Paper 166

Journal Article
Credit Cycles and Business Cycles

Unsecured firm credit moves procyclically in the United States and tends to lead gross domestic product, while secured firm credit is acyclical. Shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit. This article surveys a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model in which constraints on unsecured firm credit preclude an efficient capital allocation among heterogeneous firms. Unsecured credit rests on the value that borrowers attach to a good credit reputation, which is a forward-looking variable. Self-fulfilling beliefs over ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 1

Journal Article
A Taylor Rule for Public Debt

Public debt is an important source of liquidity in economies facing shortages of private credit. It is also a bubble whose current price depends on expectations of what it will buy at future dates. In this article, the author studies how the government must balance the provision of sufficient liquidity against the risk of adverse expectations regarding future debt prices when private liquidity has dried up. The socially optimal balance is captured in a Taylor-like rule that sets a target for real public debt and manages expectations by overreacting to deviations from the target value. ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 3 , Pages 227-38

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