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Can the Income-Expenditure Discrepancy Improve Forecasts?
Gross domestic income and gross domestic product?GDI and GDP?measure aggregate economic activity using income and expenditure data, respectively. Discrepancies between the initial estimates of quarterly growth rates for these two measures appear to have some predictive power for subsequent GDP revisions. However, this power has weakened considerably since 2011. Similarly, the first revision to GDP growth has less predictive power in forecasting subsequent revisions since 2011. One possible explanation is that evolving data collection and estimation methods have helped improve initial GDP and ...
Rising Wildfire Risk for the 12th District Economy
The growing risk from natural disasters is a key economic effect of climate change. Severe wildfires are a leading example, and they are particularly important for the western states that make up the 12th Federal Reserve District. Analyzing data on wildfire hazard and economic activity confirms that these states are substantially more exposed to wildfire risk than the rest of the country. This gap in regional wildfire risk is likely to grow over time as climate change continues.