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Journal Article
Generational accounts: a new approach to fiscal policy evaluation
A discussion of why budget deficits are inadequate measures of the long-run effect of fiscal policy on intergenerational redistributi- on, and an assertion that policy evaluation would be better served by looking at generational accounts.
Working Paper
The annuitization of Americans' resources: a cohort analysis
An analysis of the changes since 1960 in the share of Americans' resources that are annuitized, which has declined slightly for younger Americans but has risen dramatically for the elderly, with important implications for the national saving rate and income inequality.
Working Paper
Generational accounting: a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving
An application of generational accounting to fiscal policies that feature intergenerational redistribution. The authors consider different policies, only some of which show up as a change in the deficit, and explore their impact on the net national saving rate.
Working Paper
Reassessing the social returns to equipment investment
Working Paper
Social security and Medicare policy from the perspective of generational accounting
An application of the generational accounting method of fiscal policy analysis to projected spending paths for Social Security and Medicare suggesting that, under realistic assumptions for these programs, future generations as well as current young Americans could bear a significantly larger share of the burden of government spending than previously thought.
Working Paper
Simulating U.S. tax reform
A presentation of a large-scale, dynamic simulation model for comparing the equity, efficiency, and macroeconomic effects of five alternatives to the current U.S. federal income tax: a proportional income tax, a proportional consumption tax, a flat tax, a flat tax with transition relief, and a progressive variant of the flat tax called the "X tax."
Journal Article
Assessing fundamental tax reform
A look at how some basic tax reform proposals stack up against four, sometimes competing, requirements laid out by President Clinton in a December 1997 speech: Is the proposal fiscally responsible? Will it be good for the economy? Will it lead to a simpler tax system? And finally, is it fair to all Americans?
Journal Article
Assessing the impact of income tax, social security tax, and health care spending on U.S. saving rates
An assessment of the effects of proposed reductions in income and Social Security taxes on middle-income Americans and of cuts in health care spending, using the generational accounting method to examine their likely impact on both current and future national saving rates.
Working Paper
Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?
The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) made significant changes to corporate and personal federal income taxation, including limiting the SALT (state and local property, income and sales taxes) deductibility to $10,000. States with high SALT tend to vote Democratic. This paper estimates the differential effect of the TCJA on red- and blue-state taxpayers and investigates the importance of the SALT limitation to this differential. We calculate the effect of permanent implementation of the TCJA on households using The Fiscal Analyzer: a life-cycle, consumption-smoothing program incorporating ...