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Author:Armantier, Olivier 

Discussion Paper
Political Polarization in Consumer Expectations

Following the 2016 presidential election, as noted on this blog and many other outlets, Americans? political and economic outlook changed dramatically depending on partisan affiliation. Immediately after the election, Republicans became substantially more optimistic relative to Democrats. In this blog post, we revisit the issue of polarization over the past twelve months using data from the New York Fed?s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)?also the focus of a detailed technical overview in the latest edition of the Bank?s journal, the Economic Policy Review. The overview walks readers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20171215

Discussion Paper
Mixed Impacts of the Federal Tax Reform on Consumer Expectations

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 changed the tax brackets, tax rates, credits and deductions for individuals and similarly altered corporate tax rates, deductions and exclusions. In this post, we examine whether the reform has shifted individuals? expectations about their financial situation and the macroeconomic outlook. We also ask whether households have already started to adjust their behavior in line with their expectations. In order to answer these questions, we use novel data from a special module of the New York Fed?s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) fielded in February 2018 to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180523

Discussion Paper
Just Released: A Closer Look at Recent Tightening in Consumer Credit

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released results today from its October 2018 SCE Credit Access Survey, which provides information on consumers' experiences with and expectations about credit demand and credit access. The survey is fielded every four months and was previously fielded in June.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181203

Discussion Paper
Economic Expectations Grow Less Polarized since the 2016 Election

In two previous blog posts (from January 2017 and December 2017), we examined political polarization in economic expectations in the period immediately after the 2016 presidential election using the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Today, we begin a two-part series that revisits the issue. In this post, we provide an update on how economic expectations have evolved in counties where a plurality voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and counties where a plurality voted for Hillary Clinton. In a second post, we will look at how economic expectations differed in the run-up to the 2018 ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190513

Discussion Paper
Did Changes in Economic Expectations Foreshadow Swings in the 2018 Elections?

In the months leading up to the 2018 midterm elections, were economic expectations in congressional districts about to elect a Republican similar to those in districts about to elect a Democrat? How did economic expectations evolve in districts where the party holding the House seat would switch? After examining the persistence of polarization in expectations using voting patterns from the presidential election in our previous post, we explore here how divergence in expectations may have foreshadowed the results of the midterm elections. Using the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190515

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Press Briefing on the Evolution and Future of Homeownership

The New York Fed today held a press briefing on homeownership in the United States, in connection with its release of the 2019 Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey. The briefing opened with remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who provided commentary on the macroeconomic outlook and summarized the prospects for homeownership. He noted that the labor market remains very strong and that there seems to be little evidence of inflationary pressures, meaning that the economy is on a healthy growth path.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190522

Discussion Paper
Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting

The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its March 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which provides information on consumers' economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how income, spending, inflation, credit access, and housing and labor market conditions will evolve over time. The March survey, which was fielded between March 2 and 31, records a substantial deterioration in financial and economic expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth expectations. As ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200406b

Discussion Paper
How Widespread Is the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Consumer Expectations?

In a recent blog post, we showed that consumer expectations worsened sharply through March, as the COVID-19 epidemic spread and affected a growing part of the U.S. population. In this post, we document how much of this deterioration can be directly attributed to the coronavirus outbreak. We then explore how the effect of the outbreak has varied over time and across demographic groups.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200416b

Discussion Paper
Inflation Expectations in Times of COVID-19

As an important driver of the inflation process, inflation expectations must be monitored closely by policymakers to ensure they remain consistent with long-term monetary policy objectives. In particular, if inflation expectations start drifting away from the central bank’s objective, they could become permanently “un-anchored” in the long run. Because the COVID-19 pandemic is a crisis unlike any other, its impact on short- and medium-term inflation has been challenging to predict. In this post, we summarize the results of our forthcoming paper that makes use of the Survey of Consumer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200513

Report
Assessing the quality of “Furfine-based” algorithms

To conduct academic research on the federal funds (fed funds) market, historically one of the most important financial markets in the U.S., some empirical economists have used market level measures published by the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). To obtain more disaggregate data, some researchers have relied on a separate source of information: individual transactions inferred indirectly from an algorithm based on the work of Furfine (1999). To date, however, the accuracy of this algorithm has not been formally established. In this paper, we conduct a test aimed ...
Staff Reports , Paper 575

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