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Journal Article
Sovereign Default and Economic Performance in Oil-Producing Economies
Because oil-producing countries do hold public debt and do default, we must understand how oil reserves and production affect risk and economic performance.
Working Paper
Metro Business Cycles
We construct monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) beginning in 1990. Each index is derived from a dynamic factor model based on twelve underlying variables capturing various aspects of metro area economic activity. To accommodate mixed-frequency data and differences in data-publication lags, we estimate the dynamic factor model using a maximum- likelihood approach that allows for arbitrary patterns of missing data. Our indices highlight important similarities and differences in business cycles across MSAs. While a number of MSAs ...
Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone
Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Little Rock zone
Journal Article
Lagging Long-Term Wage Growth
The long-run trend of average wages has consistently failed to keep pace with overall economic growth.
Journal Article
Recovery from the Great Recession Has Varied around the World
Since 2009, percentage growth in GDP has been the highest in Asia and Africa and the lowest in Europe, followed by North America. The mediocre performance on the latter two continents could have something to do with their advanced and open financial systems, which might have made it easier for the global financial crisis to spread through them.
Journal Article
The liquidity trap: an alternative explanation for today's low inflation
In contrast with many people?s expectations, the Fed?s injection of $3.5 trillion into the economy caused no significant inflation or increases in the price level. There are many possible explanations in the mainstream; an alternative is a liquidity trap.
Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone
Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone