Lagging Long-Term Wage Growth
The long-run trend of average wages has consistently failed to keep pace with overall economic growth.
Trapped: Few Developing Countries Can Climb the Economic Ladder or Stay There
Despite the theory of global economic convergence, few developing countries have actually been able to catch up to the income levels in the U.S. or other advanced economies. They remain trapped at a relatively low- or middle-income level.
Does More Financial Development Lead to More or Less Volatility?
Since the financial crisis, many have speculated that as a financial sector becomes more developed, volatility can become excessive.
Metro Business Cycles
We construct monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) beginning in 1990. Each index is derived from a dynamic factor model based on twelve underlying variables capturing various aspects of metro area economic activity. To accommodate mixed-frequency data and differences in data-publication lags, we estimate the dynamic factor model using a maximum- likelihood approach that allows for arbitrary patterns of missing data. Our indices highlight important similarities and differences in business cycles across MSAs. While a number of MSAs ...
Demographics Help Explain the Fall in the Labor Force Participation Rate
Some believe the decline is due to discouraged workers' dropping out of the labor force. A review of national and District statistics, however, suggests that demographic changes?such as aging workers and adults spending more years in college?can explain this trend.