Journal Article
Working from Home: More Americans Are Telecommuting
Gascon, Charles S.; Arbogast, Iris; Spewak, Andrew (2019)
Americans who primarily work from home represented 3% of full-time employees in 2017, up from 0.7% in 1980.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries
Arbogast, Iris; Wen, Yi (2020-11-16)
Economic growth should overshoot its long-run trend to make up for the downturn caused by the pandemic. So far, this hasn’t happened.
On the Economy

Not All Bursting Market Bubbles Have the Same Recessionary Effect
Wen, Yi; Arbogast, Iris (2021-02-15)
The popped IT bubble ushered in an eight-month recession in 2001. The burst housing bubble resulted in the Great Recession (2007-09). Why the difference?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Geographic Dispersion in U.S. Employment
Ravikumar, B.; Arbogast, Iris; LaBelle, Jesse (2022-04-04)
In the U.S., 112 of more than 3,000 counties accounted for 50% of employment in 2020.
Economic Synopses , Issue 9 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Increasing Employment by Halting Pandemic Unemployment Benefits
Dupor, Bill; Arbogast, Iris (2022-07-14)
In mid-2021, 26 states halted participation in all or some federal emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) programs before those programs' federal funding lapsed. This article uses this asynchronous EUB cessation between early- and late-halting states to estimate the causal impact of benefit cessation on employment. We find that cessation increased employment by 29 persons for every 100 (pre-halt) EUB recipients. Expressed as a number of jobs, if all states had halted EUB in June, September employment would have been 3.4 million persons higher relative to a no-halt counterfactual. Late-halting ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 3 , Pages 166-177

Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Linked to Job Growth
Arbogast, Iris; Dupor, Bill (2022-08-08)
A new state-level analysis finds that ending emergency unemployment benefits had a statistically significant positive impact on employment.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Employment Effects of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Benefits: Incentives Matter
Dupor, Bill; Arbogast, Iris (2022-08-04)
The employment effects of halting programs that granted emergency unemployment benefits during the pandemic were substantial and differed across age groups.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Anecdotal Evidence Suggests State Capacity Unrelated to COVID-19 Spread
Wen, Yi; Arbogast, Iris; Reinbold, Brian (2020-11-23)
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored many societal issues, including the capacity of different world governments to contain the virus’ spread.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 4

Working Paper
The Jobs Effect of Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: A State-Level Analysis
Arbogast, Iris; Dupor, Bill (2022-04-24)
This note uses the asynchronous cessation of emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) in 2021 to investigate the jobs impact of ending unemployment benefits. While some states stopped providing EUB in September, other states stopped in June and July. Using the cessation month as an instrument, we estimate the causal effect on employment of reducing unemployment rolls. In the first three months following a state’s program termination, for every 100 person reduction in beneficiaries, state employment causally increased by about 35 persons. The effect is statistically different from zero and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-010

How Uneven Were the Labor Market Recoveries across U.S. States?
Arbogast, Iris; Dupor, Bill (2022-02-10)
Some states finished 2021 with unemployment rates below their pre-pandemic levels, while most had rates still above levels before COVID-19.
On the Economy