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V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries
Economic growth should overshoot its long-run trend to make up for the downturn caused by the pandemic. So far, this hasn’t happened.
Journal Article
Anecdotal Evidence Suggests State Capacity Unrelated to COVID-19 Spread
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored many societal issues, including the capacity of different world governments to contain the virus’ spread.
Journal Article
Long-Term Trends in Gasoline Prices
Average annual CPI inflation from 1990 to 2021 was 2.4%, while average annual gasoline price inflation was 3.9%.
Not All Bursting Market Bubbles Have the Same Recessionary Effect
The popped IT bubble ushered in an eight-month recession in 2001. The burst housing bubble resulted in the Great Recession (2007-09). Why the difference?
How Uneven Were the Labor Market Recoveries across U.S. States?
Some states finished 2021 with unemployment rates below their pre-pandemic levels, while most had rates still above levels before COVID-19.
The End of Emergency Pandemic Unemployment Benefits in 2021
Although many saw the $300 weekly add-on as the key disincentive to work, the large drop in benefit recipients was driven primarily by the halt in other federal jobless programs.
Journal Article
Working from Home: More Americans Are Telecommuting
Americans who primarily work from home represented 3% of full-time employees in 2017, up from 0.7% in 1980.
Journal Article
Employment Effects of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Benefits: Incentives Matter
The employment effects of halting programs that granted emergency unemployment benefits during the pandemic were substantial and differed across age groups.
Journal Article
World Population: What Helps Explain the Explosion?
A steep decline in India’s death rate from 1950 to 2019 substantially affected the size of the global population and reduced that nation’s median age relative to the U.S.
Working Paper
The Jobs Effect of Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: A State-Level Analysis
This note uses the asynchronous cessation of emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) in 2021 to investigate the jobs impact of ending unemployment benefits. While some states stopped providing EUB in September, other states stopped in June and July. Using the cessation month as an instrument, we estimate the causal effect on employment of reducing unemployment rolls. In the first three months following a state’s program termination, for every 100 person reduction in beneficiaries, state employment causally increased by about 35 persons. The effect is statistically different from zero and ...