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The impact of an aging U.S. population on state tax revenues
As the baby boom generation retires, the nation?s labor force participation rate is expected to decline. And since most people earn less and spend less during retirement, the aging of the U.S. population will likely reduce income and sales tax revenue per capita for state governments. Felix and Watkins draw from data on different age groups? earning and spending patterns to assess how projected changes in the age distribution across the American population are likely to affect earning and spending?and therefore state revenue from income taxes and sales taxes. They find that demographic change will have a significant impact. Had the population?s age composition in 2011 already resembled what is projected for 2030?that is, having a greater proportion of retirees?state tax revenue would have been reduced by $8.1 billion, or 1.1 percent.
AUTHORS: Andrist, Felix; Watkins, Kate
Real output in Switzerland: new estimates for 1914-47
In this article, Felix A, Andrist, Richard G. Anderson, and Marcela Williams provide, for the first time, an estimate of the real gross domestic product of Switzerland between 1914 and 1947. The estimate is obtained from published data on three other measures of Swiss economic activity during this period: net national product, industrial production, and the transport volume of Swiss railroads. These underlying series closely represent the economic growth of Switzerland; but, they also seem unreasonably volatile as proxy measures of total production, and hence, are filtered by moving averages. Although such smoothing might reduce the accuracy of the estimates, comparisons to U.S. data suggest any such loss is small.
AUTHORS: Williams, Marcela M.; Andrist, Felix; Anderson, Richard G.