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Journal Article
The financial services sector: boom and recession
The fluctuations in home construction (and prices) have been widely discussed, but swings in the financial services sector also are important elements of economic activity within U.S. states.
Journal Article
A case for oil?
Working Paper
Does money matter in inflation forecasting?
This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while ...
Journal Article
Retail sweep programs and money demand
Journal Article
Is more QE in sight?
Most analysts have concluded that the LSAP successfully reduced long-term market interest rates. How, exactly, do LSAP-style programs succeed?
Working Paper
Productivity measurement and monetary policymaking during the 1990s
The acceleration of productivity growth during the latter half of the 1990s was both the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the conflict between incoming aggregate data, which initially suggested little productivity gain, and anecdotal firm-level evidence which hinted at an acceleration. Some FOMC members feared an overheating economy and higher inflation; others, including the Chairman, argued that revolutionary increases in productivity were occurring and the Committee should not prematurely ...
Working Paper
The perils of globalization: offshoring and economic insecurity of the American worker
According to polls from the 2006 congressional elections, globalization and economic insecurity were the primary concerns of many voters. These Americans apparently believe that they have fallen victim to liberal trade polices and that inexorable trends in globalization are destroying the American Dream. In this analysis, we use time series cross-section data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to examine the links among offshoring, labor market volatility, and the demand for social insurance. Unique among the GSS literature, our analysis includes a pseudo-panel model which permits including ...
Journal Article
The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement
The acceleration of labor productivity growth that began during the mid-1990s is the defining economic event of the past decade. A consensus has arisen among economists that the acceleration was caused by technological innovations that decreased the quality-adjusted prices of semiconductors and related information and communications technology (ICT) products, including digital computers. In sharp contrast to the previous 20 years, services-producing sectors-heavy users of ICT products-led the productivity increase, besting even a robust manufacturing sector. In this article, the authors ...
Journal Article
TIPS for social security?
Journal Article
The long-run benefits of sustained low inflation