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Journal Article
Interpreting monetary growth
Journal Article
Has expected inflation decreased?
Journal Article
The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement
The acceleration of labor productivity growth that began during the mid-1990s is the defining economic event of the past decade. A consensus has arisen among economists that the acceleration was caused by technological innovations that decreased the quality-adjusted prices of semiconductors and related information and communications technology (ICT) products, including digital computers. In sharp contrast to the previous 20 years, services-producing sectors-heavy users of ICT products-led the productivity increase, besting even a robust manufacturing sector. In this article, the authors ...
Working Paper
Construction of an estimated domestic monetary base using new estimates of foreign holdings of U.S. currency
This paper presents a new method to estimate the amount of U.S. currency held abroad. The method exploits the fact the Federal Reserve System is the major processor of currency for depository institutions. The method exploits differentials across denominations in the ratios of shipments to receipts of currency at Federal Reserve cash offices in New York City and nationwide. The method permits us to construct a new monthly time series on the domestic monetary base, M1 and M2. The method has several advantages over previous methods, including an earlier starting date (1965) and the ability to ...
Working Paper
Dynamics in systematic liquidity
We develop the principal component analysis (PCA) approach to systematic liquidity measurement by introducing moving and expanding estimation windows. We evaluate these methods along with traditional estimation techniques (full sample PCA and market average) in terms of ability to explain (1) cross-sectional stock liquidity and (2) cross-sectional stock returns. For several traditional liquidity measures our results suggest an expanding window specification for systematic liquidity estimation. However, for price impact liquidity measures we find support for a moving window specification. The ...
Journal Article
Paying interest on deposits at Federal Reserve banks
Paying interest on reserves should allow us to better control the federal funds rate.
Journal Article
Doubling your monetary base and surviving: some international experience
The authors examine the experience of selected central banks that have used large-scale balance-sheet expansion, frequently referred to as ?quantitative easing,? as a monetary policy instrument. The case studies focus on central banks responding to the recent financial crisis and Nordic central banks during the banking crises of the 1990s; others are provided for comparison purposes. The authors conclude that large-scale balance-sheet increases are a viable monetary policy tool provided the public believes the increase will be appropriately reversed.
Working Paper
A historical perspective on the Federal Reserve's monetary aggregates
Data on the monetary aggregates are the fundamental raw material for research in many facets of economics and finance. Money demand modeling, measurement of money stock announcement effects, tests of the rationality of preliminary money stock forecasts and financial market efficiency, and comparison of alternative seasonal adjustment procedures are just a few such areas. Working in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz, we chronicle the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary aggregates. Numerous changes in data sources, definitions, revision procedures, and seasonal adjustment methods ...