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Working Paper
Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy
This paper uses several methods to study the interrelationship among Divisia monetary aggregates, prices, and income, allowing for nonstationary, nonlinearities, asymmetries, and time-varying relationships among the series. We propose a multivariate regime switching unobserved components model to obtain transitory and permanent components for each series, allowing for potential recurrent and structural changes in their dynamics. Each component follows distinct two-state Markov processes representing low or high phases. Since the lead-lag relationship between the phases can vary over time, ...
Journal Article
A neutral federal funds rate?
Journal Article
The long-run benefits of sustained low inflation
Journal Article
Paying interest on deposits at Federal Reserve banks
Paying interest on reserves should allow us to better control the federal funds rate.
Working Paper
Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States
This paper examines the inflation "pass-through" problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rates of individual goods and the subsequent economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Granger causality tests robust to structural breaks are used to establish initial relationships. Then, feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) is used to approximate the functional relationship between selected component subindexes and the headline CPI. Moving beyond the ANN ?black box,? we illustrate how decision rules can be extracted from the network. ...
Working Paper
A revised measure of the St. Louis adjusted monetary base
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' adjusted monetary base combines in a single index Federal Reserve actions that affect the supply base money -- open market operations, discount window lending and unsterilized foreign exchange market intervention -- with actions that affect depository institutions' demand for base money -- changes in statutory reserve requirements. The adjusted monetary base equals the sum of the monetary base and a reserve adjustment magnitude (RAM) that maps changes in reserve requirements into equivalent changes in the (unadjusted) monetary base. This paper presents a ...
Journal Article
Banks and credit unions: competition not going away
Has the competitive balance tilted away from banks and toward credit unions, given the latter?s tax exemption and more-recent ability to draw members from wider pools? Whether it has or not, both industries have seen similar trend growth over the past 15 years?and, in fact, have come to resemble each other in many ways.
Journal Article
Monetary policy and productivity
Working Paper
Replication and scientific standards in economics a decade later: the impact of JMCB project
Scientific inquiry embodies skepticism. Researchers are trained to scrutinize every result, doubting not only the truth but also the tests of every hypothesis. Research papers in professional journals typically present only summaries of results, however, providing neither the programs nor data that a reader requires fully understanding -- and questioning -- the authors' tests. The Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking project a decade ago was the first attempt by the editor of a major journal to furnish readers with the data and programs used by the journal's authors. The project revealed the ...
Journal Article
Monetary policy's third interest rate