An Analysis of the Interest Rate Risk of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, Part 2: Projections under Alternative Interest Rate Paths
As discussed in the first note of this two-note series, net income of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its remittances to the U.S. Treasury along with the unrealized gain or loss position of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio are affected by fluctuations in interest rates. The need for the Fed to increase the policy rate expeditiously to address the inflationary pressures is projected to result in the Fed's net income turning negative temporarily.
An Analysis of the Interest Rate Risk of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, Part 1: Background and Historical Perspective
As part of its implementation of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) holds Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the System Open Market Account (SOMA). The market value of these securities and the Fed's income fluctuate with changes in interest rates. As such, the ongoing increases in policy rates to address inflationary pressures are expected to put downward pressure on the Fed's net income.
What Happened in Money Markets after the Fed's December Rate Increase?
At its December 2015 meeting, the Fed's policymaking committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), announced an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate of 25 basis points, the first increase in the policy rate since June 2006.
Modelling Overnight RRP Participation
We examine how market participants have used the Federal Reserve?s overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) exercise and how short-term interest rates have evolved between December 2013 and November 2014. We show that money market fund (MMF) participation is sensitive to the spread between market repo rates and the ON RRP offering rate as well as Treasury bill issuance, government sponsored enterprise (GSE) participation is more heavily driven by calendar effects, dealers tend to only participate when rate spreads are negative, and banks generally do not participate. We also find that the effect ...
How Have the Fed's Three Rate Hikes Passed Through to Selected Short-term Interest Rates?
Since December 2015, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points three times, bringing the target range from 0 to 25 basis points in late 2015 to 75 to 100 basis points in March 2017. This Note examines how this cumulative 75 basis point increase in the target range for the Fed's policy rate has transmitted to other short-term interest rates.
What Happened in Money Markets in September 2019?
In mid-September 2019, overnight money market rates spiked and exhibited significant volatility, amid a large drop in reserves due to the corporate tax date and increases in net Treasury issuance.
Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks
We show that the role of unsecured, short-term wholesale funding for global banks has changed significantly in the post-financial-crisis regulatory environment. Global banks mainly use such funding to finance liquid, near risk-free arbitrage positions---in particular, the interest on excess reserves arbitrage and the covered interest rate parity arbitrage. In this environment, we examine the response of global banks to a large negative wholesale funding shock as a result of the U.S. money market mutual fund reform implemented in 2016. In contrast to past episodes of wholesale funding dry-ups, ...
Ambiguity in Securitization Markets
During the financial crisis of 2008, origination and trading in asset-backed securities markets dropped dramatically. I present a model with ambiguity averse investors to explain how such a market freeze could occur and to investigate how ambiguity affects origination and securitization decisions. The model captures many features of the crisis, including market freezes and fire sales, as well as the timing and duration of the freeze. The presence of ambiguity also reduces real economic activity. Lastly, I consider the differing implications of ambiguity and risk, as well as the role of ...
Monetary Policy Implementation and Private Repo Displacement : Evidence from the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Facility
In recent years, the scale and scope of major central banks' intervention in financial markets has expanded in unprecedented ways. In this paper, we demonstrate how monetary policy implementation that relies on such intervention in financial markets can displace private transactions. Specifically, we examine the experience with the Federal Reserve's newest policy tool, known as the overnight reverse repurchase (ONRRP) facility, to understand its effects on the repo market. Using exogenous variation in the parameters of the ONRRP facility, we show that participation in the ONRRP comes from ...
Are Repo Markets Fragile? Evidence from September 2019
We show that the segmented structure of the U.S. Treasury repo market, in which some participants have limited access across the segments, leads to rate dispersion, even in this essentially riskless market. Using confidential data on repo trading, we demonstrate how the rate dispersion between the centrally cleared and over-the-counter (OTC) segments of the Treasury repo market was exacerbated during the stress episode of September 2019. Our results highlight that, while segmentation can increase fragility in the repo market, the presence of strong trading relationships in the OTC segment ...