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Author:Ammer, John 

Working Paper
Monetary policy and house prices: a cross-country study

This paper examines periods of pronounced rises and falls of real house prices since 1970 in eighteen major industrial countries, with particular focus on the lessons for monetary policy. We find that real house prices are pro-cyclical?co-moving with real GDP, consumption, investment, CPI inflation, budget and current account balances, and output gaps. House price booms are typically preceded by a period of easing monetary policy, but then diminishing slack and rising inflation lead monetary authorities to begin tightening policy before house prices peak. In a careful reading of official ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 841

Working Paper
Strategic returns to international diversification: an application to the equity markets of Europe, Japan, and North America

We undertake a decomposition of the risk factor loadings of fifteen national stock market returns from 1972 to 1990, using a variant of the Campbell-Shiller (1988) linearization. We find considerable variation among countries in the relative importance of a cash flow component and a discount rate component in determining the beta with the world equity index return and with other risk factors. Also, the international heterogeneity we find in factor loadings suggests that a global portfolio allows substantial hedging opportunities, presumably deriving from differences in underlying economic ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 502

Working Paper
Cash flows and discount rates, industry and country effects, and co-movement in stock returns

This paper examines the relative importance of global, country-specific, and industry-specific factors in both the cash flow and discount rate components of equity returns between 1995 and 2003. Our framework draws upon previously separate literatures on country versus industry effects and (forward-looking) cash flow versus discount rate components of equity return innovations. We apply the Campbell (1991) decomposition for industry-by-country, all-country, global industry, and world market index returns so we can produce a richer characterization of same-industry and same-country effects in ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 818

Working Paper
Measuring international economic linkages with stock market data

The covariance between domestic and foreign equity return innovations is decomposed into components associated with news about future real and financial variables. In an application to fifteen national stock markets, we find that news about future dividend growth tends to be more highly correlated than contemporaneous output measures, suggesting that there are lags in the international transmission of real economic shocks. In addition, results from a longer sample period suggest that both real and financial linkages between the U.S. and the U.K. appear to have increased after the Bretton ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 449

Working Paper
Macroeconomic risk and asset pricing: estimating the apt with observable factors

This paper develops and applies a new maximum likelihood method for estimating the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model with observable risk factors. The approach involves simultaneous estimation of the factor loadings and risk premiums and can be applied to return panel with more securities than time series observations per security. Observable economic factors are found to account for 25 to 40 percent of the covariation in U.S. equity returns, and the APT pricing restrictions cannot be rejected for most sample periods. A significant "firm size anomaly" is measured, but it may be partly ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 448

Working Paper
Why do U.S. cross-listings matter?

This paper investigates the underlying determinants of home bias using a comprehensive sample of U.S. investor holdings of foreign stocks. We document that U.S. cross-listings are economically important, as U.S. ownership in a foreign firm roughly doubles upon cross-listing in the United States. We explore the cross-sectional variation in this "cross-listing effect" and show that increases in U.S. investment are largest in firms from weak accounting backgrounds and in firms that are otherwise informationally opaque, indicating that U.S. investors value the improvements in disclosure ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 930

Working Paper
Good news is no news? The impact of credit rating changes on the pricing of asset-backed securities

We assess the impact of credit ratings on the pricing of structured financial products, using a sample of more than 1300 changes in Moody's or Standard and Poor's (S&P) ratings of U.S. asset-backed securities (ABS). We find that rating downgrades tend to be accompanied by negative returns and widening spreads, with the average effects stronger than those that have been reported in prior research on corporate and sovereign bond ratings. A portion of the negative implications of ABS downgrades are anticipated by price movements ahead of the rating action, although to a lesser degree than has ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 809

Working Paper
Searching for Yield Abroad : Risk-Taking Through Foreign Investment in U.S. Bonds

The risk-taking effects of low interest rates, now prevailing in many advanced countries, "search-for-yield," can be hard to analyze due to both a paucity of data and challenges in identification. Unique, security-level data on portfolio investment into the United States allow us to overcome both problems. Analyzing holdings of investors from 36 countries in close to 15,000 unique U.S. corporate bonds between 2003 and 2016, we show that declining home-country interest rates lead investors to shift their portfolios toward riskier U.S. corporate bonds, consistent with "search-for-yield". We ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1224

Working Paper
Has international financial co-movement changed? Emerging markets in the 2007-2009 financial crisis

Emerging market (EM) assets have historically been regarded as inherently risky and particularly vulnerable to international shocks that result in a general increase in investor risk perceptions. In this paper, we assess the ongoing relevance of this view by examining the linkages between EM and non-EM stock and bond markets in the past two decades, with a focus on how these relationships played out during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. We evaluate how these linkages have evolved over the period 1992-2009, through statistical tests of whether the volatility of EM financial markets ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1006

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China

Although many central banks in the 21st century have become more transparent, Chinese monetary policy communications have been relatively opaque, making it more difficult for financial market participants to make decisions that depend on the future path of interest rates. We conduct a novel systematic textual analysis of the discussion in the quarterly reports of China fund managers, from which we infer their near-term expectations for monetary policy. We construct an aggregate index of manager expectations and show that, as a forecast of Chinese monetary policy, it compares favorably with ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1285


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