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Author:Amano, Robert 

Conference Paper
Monetary rules when economic behaviour changes
AUTHORS: Coletti, Don; Amano, Robert; Macklem, Tiff
DATE: 1998-03

Working Paper
Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk
We construct a model to evaluate the role that the risk of future effective lower bound (ELB) episodes plays as a factor behind the persistently weak inflation witnessed in many advanced economies since the Great Recession. In our model, a range of precautionary channels cause ELB risk to affect inflation and other macroeconomic outcomes even during ?normal times? when nominal rates are far away from the ELB. This behavior is enhanced through a growth channel that captures possible long-lasting output declines at the ELB. We show that ELB risk substantially weighs on inflation even when the policy rate is above the ELB. Our model also predicts substantially below-target inflation expectations and negative inflation risk premia.
AUTHORS: Amano, Robert; Carter, Thomas; Leduc, Sylvain
DATE: 2019-10-15

Journal Article
Is the Risk of the Lower Bound Reducing Inflation?
U.S. inflation has remained below the Fed’s 2% goal for over 10 years, averaging about 1.5%. One contributing factor may be the impact from a higher probability of future monetary policy being constrained by the effective lower bound on interest rates. Model simulations suggest that this higher risk of hitting the lower bound may lead to lower expectations for future inflation, which in turn reduces inflation compensation for investors. The higher risk may also change household and business spending and pricing behavior. Taken together, these effects contribute to weaker inflation.
AUTHORS: Amano, Robert; Carter, Thomas; Leduc, Sylvain
DATE: 2020-05

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